The Chicago Bulls were a ping-pong ball bounce away from landing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and the right to select a franchise-changing prospect in Cooper Flagg.
Instead, a tiebreaker between Chicago and Dallas resulted in the Mavericks landing at 11 in the lottery standings and the Bulls at 12, so while the Mavs get away with trading Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers and lucking into a player like Flagg, Chicago gets the No. 12 pick and will compete for lottery scraps.
Bulls Vice President of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas has only had three first-round selections during his time in charge in Chicago, so it's difficult to judge his scouting ability completely. Last year's lottery selection, Matas Buzelis, looks like a hit. Karnisovas' other two first-rounders, though, sure look like misses.
In its search for a superstar, it appears the front office has overlooked one crucial quality in draftees.
Bulls focused on ceiling and ignored floor with Pat Williams, Dalen Terry
Ironically, Chicago's floor is what Karnisovas seems to be set on defining. The Bulls have made three consecutive Eastern Conference Play-In Tournaments with no playoff berths to show for it. They've won 44.8 percent of their games during Karnisovas's tenure. Drafting a prospect with a high-floor rather than shooting for the moon seems very Karnisovas-y.
His draft record speaks otherwise.
Chicago selected Patrick Williams with the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft. Williams has turned into one of the biggest busts of the last five years. Hindsight is 20/20, but the forward's selection was based completely on upside.
NBADraft.net's scouting report on Williams used the word "upside" three times. Said scouting report also included phrases like "oozes potential," "when he's engaged," "question marks about his want to," "does he have the desire," "shows tons of untapped potential," and "How badly does he 'want it?"
Chicago went with Williams' tantalizing upside over more proven collegiate prospects like Tyrese Haliburton, Williams' teammate at Florida State Devin Vassell, or even Aaron Nesmith. That decision could haunt the Bulls for another four years.
A more excusable mistake, but a mistake nonetheless, came two years later when Chicago selected Dalen Terry, an intriguing 20-year-old prospect out of Arizona. Again, it was Terry's upside that made him a top-20 selection that summer.
The guard/forward measured 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan and 8-foot-10 standing reach. That's intense positional size for someone who ran the point with the Wildcats as a sophomore. The Tempe native's calling card going into the 2022 draft centered almost solely on his defense. Given his size and length, he was projected to be a versatile player capable of shutting down both guards and wings.
His offense was a serious question mark. Terry was a poor shooter from three and the mid-range. He averaged 6.6 points combined over his two college seasons and only 8.0 ppg as a sophomore.
Again, the word "potential" was thrown around multiple times in his scouting report. He had star traits with his physical profile, if only he could develop an outside shot and learn how to run an offense.
He got the chance last season, playing in 73 games and averaging 11.1 minutes a night. He averaged a career-high 4.5 points on a career-high 3.7 field goal attempts.
There's an argument to be made that Terry hasn't gotten enough run in the NBA to show he's at least a role player and not another high-potential bust. But 2024-25 was his third year in the league, and he still hasn't earned head coach Billy Donovan's full trust. And when he is on the floor, he's even less aggressive than Williams.
Christian Braun, who went just three spots after Terry, has become a starter for the Denver Nuggets. Shot-blocker extraordinaire Walker Kessler was selected immediately after Braun and has averaged 2.4 blocks per game over his three NBA seasons. The Bulls are still searching for a rim protector.
Neither Braun nor Kessler will ever become a superstar, but both have already proven to be important to their respective teams, something Terry has not come close to doing.
Karnisovas took two home-run swings and appears to have whiffed on both. If Chicago is going to change its postseason luck, taking a prospect's floor into account would be a fine idea.