April 21, 2025. The NBA executed a series of random tiebreakers to determine the order of selection for the NBA Draft. At 36-46, the Phoenix Suns won the tiebreaker to nab the ninth spot over the Portland Trail Blazers, who would fall to 10th. Consequently, Phoenix was granted a 3.8 percent chance to land the first pick, which then dropped the Trail Blazers only a tenth of a percent to 3.7.
The next tiebreaker involved the Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks, who each went 39-43 this past season. The random drawing saw the downtrodden Mavs win the tiebreaker to secure the 11th spot. Thus, the Bulls would place 12th, like Portland, a tenth of a percent lower than their tiebreaker rival to land the prized first pick. Thereafter, Dallas was granted 1.8 percent odds to Chicago's 1.7 percent.
Not a big deal. Statistically, landing the 11th pick was a foregone conclusion for Dallas. The Mavericks were given a 91.1 percent chance to select either 11th or 12th in the NBA Draft after the tiebreaker. The Bulls' odds weren't much different, albeit a spot lower. Chicago was 91.8 percent likely to select 12th or 13th.
The 11th-ranked Mavs won the draft lottery after winning a tiebreaker with the Bulls
May 12, 2025. The date of the draft lottery. With Matas Buzelis representing his hometown Bulls, optimism wasn't extremely high that the Bulls would land any other pick besides 12th. As expected, Chicago retained the 12th overall pick in typical Bulls fashion.
Following the Bulls' revelation, the Toumani Camara-represented Trail Blazers fell to 11th, after only an 18.5 percent chance of such a likelihood occurring. With the Mavs not being rewarded the 11th pick, a top-four selection was in their imminent future, as it was the only possible probability.
As the top four began to reveal, the Charlotte Hornets came away with the fourth pick, the Philadelphia 76ers landed third, and the San Antonio Spurs secured the second pick. That left the Utah Jazz to acquire the first overall pick… right? Wrong. Somehow, the Mavericks, with a slim, 1.8 percent chance to procure the first overall pick, were awarded the greatest prize outside of the Larry O'Brien Trophy—Cooper Flagg.
Back up, the team that won the tiebreaker to be given a 1.8 percent chance to land the first overall pick, just did the miraculous? You got it. Not the perpetually rebuilding Bulls, but the Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving-led Mavericks. After jettisoning their franchise player in one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history, the Mavericks won the draft lottery.
Asterisk. The Mavericks won the draft lottery after also winning the random tiebreaker with the Bulls for the 11th slot on April 21. Now, instead of Chicago landing its franchise savior, he'll be drafted to the team that's come into an assortment of riches over the years.
It's an extremely tough pill to swallow for Bulls fans. An overlooked tiebreaker could have transformed Chicago's future for the better. With Flagg and the most vaunted draft prospects off the table, Chicago will now likely select a forward to pair with Buzelis or a center to eventually usurp 34-year-old Nikola Vucevic.