Chicago Bulls Over/Under: Take the Under, Way Under

The Las Vegas numbers are in and the Chicago Bulls Over/Under is at 38.5 wins. Even with a number that low, there’s plenty of reasons to take the under.

If you compared this team to the Titanic, you’d be doing a bad job. Not only was the sinking of the Titanic a terrible disaster that cost real human lives, it also is meant to signify a colossus. In this case, a monster of a sports team. The Bulls are anything but that.

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The list of obstacles facing the 2016-17 Bulls could fill up several posts, but we’re going to try and keep it simple for now. Last season, Chicago dropped out of the playoffs for the first time since the Scott Skiles era. Naturally, a generally poor record accompanies a year in the lottery. At 42-40, the Bulls struggled as hard as they have since 2007-08 under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg.

Yesterday, we covered a few reasons why Chicago fans should want to take the over. The benefits of off-loading Derrick Rose and upgrading at center to Robin Lopez at center were huge strides forward for an often-backward front office. Unfortunately, backward is the only direction things appear to be headed despite that trade with the Knicks.

The Bulls raced to gobble up cap room, bringing in both Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade. There was speculation that perhaps Chicago assumed that they weren’t going to be able to land Wade when they locked in Rondo. That is possible, but mostly it serves as yet another example of the Bulls front office doing themselves in. The Rondo and Wade dynamic is puzzling not just in terms of salary.

The bizarre coupling seems particularly unlikely to be tenable given their personalities and history. Of course, that is in addition to the already present Jimmy Butler. Thus, the “Three Alphas” were born.

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It is more complex than just their relationships together. Rondo doesn’t play defense anymore. Wade doesn’t play more than 65 games per season anymore. Butler doesn’t look like a prolific scoring option anymore.

Even if the “Three Alphas” can work together, there’s the whole issue of the Rondo-Hoiberg dynamic. Mavericks fans still haven’t forgotten the events that unfolded between coach Rick Carlisle and Rondo while he was briefly in Dallas. Hoiberg has already been challenged by Butler in the media, so it’s hard to see Rondo being able to rein himself in for an entire season.

And then there is Hoiberg. He had a bad first year in Chicago. We touched on this already, yesterday. In the past, he has shown the resilience to bounce back, persevere and improve. Coaching at the NBA level is unlike any other challenge he has faced, even with a pretty good track record at Iowa State. Did 20 years coaching, mostly in the professional ranks overseas, help David Blatt or did he still vanish back into the European basketball night from whence he came?

Because the shadow of Rondo and Hoiberg loom so large, Wade almost sneaks by unnoticed. He is one of the best to ever do it, but he is also old and banged up. 65 games is probably a pretty accurate number for Wade to appear in for Chicago, maybe even a little high, that is only his expected total if he stays healthy. If Wade experiences any type of medium to major injury, that is completely blown out of the water, along with the Bulls win expectancy.

This roster has a solid amount of talent, but closer inspection will show that the construction is actually paper thin and sits on top of a powder keg.

What is known about each player makes 35-38 wins seems like a solid assessment. What makes this prognostication scary is the unknown about this roster. Chicago is essentially mediocre at this point and the rest of the division is getting better. Even Milwaukee is making the right moves with players like the Giannis Antetokounmpo signing.

The hypothetical that all Bulls fans need to consider – what does the front office do if this team fails to produce a winning record by mid-December? This roster has a solid amount of talent, but closer inspection will show that the construction is actually paper thin and sits on top of a powder keg.

Hoiberg probably isn’t the next great NBA coach, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be above average at some point in the future. The future isn’t the here-and-now, so the leash might be shorter than anyone realizes. Rondo isn’t a great signing, but if he can maintain the assist numbers he had in Sacramento, his trade value increases. Avoiding any more black eyes like his homophobic outburst at Billy Kennedy last year could help repair some of his tarnished image.

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The fun hasn’t started until the ESPN Trade Machine is humming. There’s a trade that almost makes too much sense and the salaries can be matched – Wade for Kevin Love. The money works and LeBron gets to reunite with his friend while dumping Lil Kev. If Gar Forman thought the money they threw at 34-year-old Wade was a great idea, imagine how tickled they would be on a slightly cheaper deal for a younger player that has “star power.” Seems like the exact kind of fiasco that Chicago would eagerly pat themselves on the back for executing.

Speaking of power forwards and trades, Taj Gibson is likely on the way out regardless of the success of the Bulls this season. Gibson deserves better. Set him free. I hope that he finds his way to a San Antonio, Oklahoma City or Golden State. Let the man live.

If things go south, we’ve got possible trades of Rondo, Wade, and Gibson. Also, a head coaching change might not be entirely out of the question, though I’d say that each of these potential trades are more likely than a coaching change. Hoiberg has the requisite Iowa State pedigree and the hiring of Nate Loenser as head coach of the Windy City Bulls indicates a doubling down on the Chicago investment.

If no trades or firings happen, there is still a landslide of reasons for why the Bulls will have a hard time winning games this season. Wade and Rondo are both past their prime and there is real skepticism about their relationship with each other, with Butler and with Hoiberg.

The “Three Alphas” getting on the same page might be a minor miracle, but consistency from players like Nikola Mirotic and steps forward in ability at the pro level from players like Jerian Grant and Bobby Portis seem like too much to ask for.

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Only time will tell, but things don’t look good for the Bulls. The particularly accurate projections of Andrew Johnson have the Bulls sitting at 35 wins for the upcoming season:

My full win projections, article soon (hopefully)https://t.co/POV1ujkeni
— The Viscount of Baskets (@CountingBaskets) September 21, 2016

If that particular win total is accurate, the Bulls could be closer to the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft than the playoffs. The boys behind the Fastbreak Breakfast podcast also have the Bulls pegged at 35 wins:

Here's my first stab at wins:

CLE 57
BOS 54
TOR 53
IND 45
ATL 44
CHA 43
DET 41
MIA 40
---
WAS 39
MIL 38
NYK 37
CHI 35
ORL 33
PHI 22
BKN 18
— Fastbreak Breakfast (@fastbreakbreak) September 21, 2016

There are good reasons to take the over. There are good reasons to take the under. Either way, good luck to anyone that thinks they can pin down exactly where this team is headed. Whether they make the playoffs or land somewhere in the lottery, this Bulls season is going to be one interesting ride.

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