Chicago Bulls Over/Under: Take the Over

The Westgate Las Vegas over/under numbers have been released and it doesn’t look good for the Chicago Bulls at 38.5 wins, but there’s reason for hope. This year, take the over on the Bulls Westgate over/under.

No, don’t take the Bulls to win 60 games. That’s definitely a bad position to take. However, it wouldn’t be unfair to believe that the Bulls can fight their way to around the .500 mark, if not better.

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The Westgate mark is 38.5 wins according to Jeff Sherman:

2016-17 NBA regular season win totals

Hawks 43.5
Celtics 51.5
Nets 20.5
Hornets 39.5
Bulls 38.5
Cavaliers 56.5
Mavericks 39.5
Nuggets 34.5
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) September 20, 2016

It won’t be easy, but it can be done. Here’s a few reasons why it makes sense.

First up, new center Robin Lopez. If you aren’t familiar with Lopez, it’s time to get caught up. The center was acquired via trade with the New York Knicks, primarily for Derrick Rose. If you check out the piece I wrote about Lopez at the beginning of the summer, you’ll start to get a better idea of his value. In short, he’s a cheaper, younger, better center than what the Bulls had in the past, including the aging, frequently banged-up Joakim Noah.

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Lopez does a lot of things that a “true center” is supposed to be able to do, and he does them particularly well. He’s solid on the offensive end of the floor, able to play with his back to the basket. He’s better on the defensive end of the floor where he’ll offer a stout defensive presence that Pau Gasol really wasn’t capable of providing.

There is some trade off in the way that Lopez will play compared to what the Bulls got from Noah. He won’t be doing much running of the point. It would be a bad thing if we see a lot of RoLo at the top of the key and no dribble. Still, we keep having to go back to the most important things here – younger, cheaper, better.

Next, there’s the Fred Hoiberg experience. Stephen Noh wrote a great piece for The Athletic on Hoiberg’s history of slow starts. You can go read the entire piece for yourself, right here. Noh shows that Hoiberg also had a rough start with Iowa State before turning that program into a winner.

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Noh is dead-on with this one. Judging Hoiberg on his first season has its merits. It also has some major drawbacks. Primarily, Hoiberg wasn’t coaching his roster in his first season in charge. Injuries to Mike Dunleavy, Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah each played a significant role in the trials and tribulations of the 2015-16 Bulls. But there was more. Hoiberg inherited the version of Derrick Rose that is nice, but not necessary. He also had to deal with Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler.

Butler is still around, but the Bulls have moved on from Noah, Rose and Gasol. They also loaded up on youth and high-upside guys that are currently somewhere near their floors.

Jerian Grant is going to get minutes and an opportunity to establish himself, kick-starting his NBA career. Denzel Valentine has all of the scoring ability you could ask for, but he needs to work on the defense. The same can be said for Doug McDermott. Bobby Portis is also ready for a bigger role. If anything happens to Lopez, there’s Cristiano Felicio. The room for growth is huge. Portis and Valentine figure to be starters of some greater or lesser capability as their careers progress. Valentine is much more unknown since he has no professional experience to date. In that regard, he’s probably closer to Grant. Jerian is a second-year player that didn’t see much of the court for the Knicks in his rookie season. He has potential, but is still an unknown quantity that isn’t ready for the spotlight right now. Valentine is also a few years away. He might eventually develop a lethal two-way game, but he’s really going to need to pick it up on defense and find that same scoring stroke that won him a series of awards during his senior year at Michigan State.

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It’s a lot of hope to place in a bunch of young and unproven players, a sophomore head coach and a center that resembles the position more as it was defined than as it is played in 2016. Still, this is the exact formula necessary for the Bulls to have any chance of moving back into the playoffs, and above 38.5 wins, in 2016-17. The framework of Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson is in place. It’ll be up to the young guns on the coaching staff and on the court to fill in the spaces and push this team above expectations.