Since the ball dropped and the calendar flipped to 2024, the Chicago Bulls have piled up 35 wins and 39 losses. Following a 24-24 record from January to April, Chicago has ended 2024 with 11 wins, albeit 15 losses and counting.
While over half of December is still left to bridge the gap to .500, Chicago's focus is clearly on the future. Piling on the losses wouldn't be the worst thing to happen to a Bulls team with its first-round draft pick in limbo. If Chicago falls into the 11-30 draft range, their first-rounder will convey to the San Antonio Spurs.
As of today, the Bulls hold the 10th spot. Therefore, their first-round pick pick is safe. However, at 10, the Bulls are a lottery night misfortunate away from not drafting in the first round for the third time in five years. After trading away DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso last offseason and listening to trade offers for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic this season, not drafting in the first round would be catastrophic.
All in all, retaining their 2025 first-rounder should be a top priority. The current Bulls iteration is good enough to finish, at best, 7th in the Eastern Conference standings—thus potentially losing out on the opportunity to draft in the top 10 for the first time in five years. Nevertheless, if Chicago trades one of LaVine or Vucevic, expect the losses to come at a hastier rate.
Only Vucevic gets traded
While LaVine is typically considered the better player, Vucevic is the easier of the two to trade. Plus, he's not far off from LaVine's level. Vooch is a two-time All-Star; the same goes for LaVine, and he averages nearly as many points as the 6-foot-6 swingman, 21.0 to 21.7, respectively.
Reverting to the "easier to trade" sentiment, Vucevic is slated to earn $20 million this season and $21.4 million next before his contract expires. On the other hand, LaVine is signed through 2026-27, averaging roughly $45 million per season. Despite slashing an efficient 50.1/42.8/80.8, LaVine's contract and injury history are reasons for buyers to beware.
Vucevic possesses the more tradeable contract, especially one more straightforward to trade in-season. Expecting the Bulls to find trade partners for both their stars is far-fetched but not out of the realm of possibility. Moreover, it's likely the 34-year-old Vucevic will first be sent elsewhere. If not prior to the February 6 trade deadline, the 2025 offseason is a safe assumption.
Chicago moves on from Billy Donovan
Coaching changes are almost synonymous with rebuilds. The most recent example of such is the Brooklyn Nets' hiring of first-time head coach Jordi Fernandez prior to parting ways with Mikal Bridges for draft compensation. While Bridges netted a much larger haul than Vucevic and LaVine are expected to generate, the similarities are evident.
Billy Donovan has coached the Bulls for four-plus seasons. His best season came in 2021-22 when Chicago won 46 games only to lose to the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs. In total, Donovan possesses a 167-177 record as the lead man.
There's no doubting Donovan's coaching career; he's been one of the more successful college-to-professional coaches in recent memory. However, if the Bulls decide on a full-blown rebuild, why keep Donovan around? It's more likely the Bulls let Donovan walk and start fresh, a la the Oklahoma City Thunder, after letting Donovan walk and hiring then-35-year-old Mark Daigneault. Several promising, up-and-coming coaches litter the NBA's benches. There's plenty of talent for Chicago to poach, and expect a long list of suitors due to the low-pressure opportunity of beginning a full-fledged rebuild from square one.
The Bulls retain their top 10 draft pick
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Chicago's first-round pick is tentative. The Bulls must secure a bottom-10 record combined with some lottery luck to hold onto their pick. If Chicago falls outside 10, San Antonio will assume the Bulls' draft slot.
After first predicting that Vucevic would be dealt in 2025, a subsequent prediction is the Bulls' losses will pile on, allowing Chicago to retain its first-rounder. The Bulls are in a precarious position and a 5-5 record in their previous 10 games isn't moving the needle. Instead, shipping off Vucevic and acquiring salary-matching components and draft capital for the big man would put Chicago on the fast track to selecting in the top 10 of June's draft.
Always expect the unexpected in the NBA, but if Chicago's continued willingness to listen to offers for Vucevic and LaVine among the other Bulls is any indication, a trade is certainly on the horizon. If said trade is executed, bad lottery luck permitting, Chicago will have the opportunity to draft a difference-maker to jumpstart the prolonged rebuild.