The Chicago Bulls will make the postseason and could also land a top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. A solid argument could be made that in a perfect world, those two things would be flipped, but Bulls fans are quite used to living in an imperfect world.
Before play on April 5, Chicago sits ninth in the Eastern Conference standings. If the season ended today, it would host an East Play-In Tournament game against the Miami Heat, who've knocked the Bulls out of the postseason the last two years.
A win would give head coach Billy Donovan's team a do-or-die matchup with either the Atlanta Hawks or Orlando Magic.
But would it really be a do-or-die scenario?
If Chicago beats Miami and Orlando/Atlanta, it would reach the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season and have a date with the Cleveland Cavaliers. If the Bulls bow out in the Play-In Tournament again, they would end up in the draft lottery, even if it comes with miniscule odds at landing the No. 1 pick.
On the day of the Final Four, with dream prospect Cooper Flagg hitting the court for the Duke Blue Devils for perhaps the last time, it's worth attempting an experiment: If we sim the lottery 10 times, how many times could Chicago land a shot at the NBA's next potential megastar?
Randomizing the draft lottery: Can the Bulls land the No. 1 pick?
After a win over the Portland Trail Blazers, a swap in the conference standings with Miami and the putridity that is the Phoenix Suns, Chicago is 12th in the lottery standings. That gives the Bulls a 2.1 percent chance of lucking into the No. 1 pick and a 9.9 percent chance at a top-4 selection.
Some additional draft lottery information, per NBA.com: "Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the 'lottery teams' will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their ... regular-season records.
"Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams."
The teams with the worst records get the most ping-pong balls and therefore the highest odds at landing No. 1.
Here's which pick the Bulls land and the prospect they select in 10 sims, per Tankathon. Keep in mind, the chances of grabbing a top-4 selection, let alone the first overall pick, are less than 10 percent.
Simulation No. 1: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 2: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 3: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 4: 12th overall pick, C Derik Queen, Maryland
Simulation No. 5: 3rd overall pick, F Ace Bailey, Rutgers
Simulation No. 6: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 7: 12th overall pick, G Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma
Simulation No. 8: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 9: 12th overall pick, G Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Simulation No. 10: 3rd overall pick, F Ace Bailey, Rutgers
Simulation No. 21: 1st overall pick, F Cooper Flagg, Duke
It wasn't part of the exercise, but for curiosity's sake, it took 21 times of pounding the "sim lottery" button for the Bulls to land Flagg.
The Bulls' chances of remaining right where they are in the lottery standings are, frankly, depressingly high. Richardson seems to be the common selection for Tankathon, a smaller combo guard who excels more on feel and IQ than athleticism.
He came on strong for the Spartans late in the season, though, using some emerging scoring skills to average 16.1 points while shooting 42.0 percent from three on 4.6 attempts per game over MSU's last 15 contests.
His positional size and the Bulls' already loaded backcourt make him a questionable pick, but betting on a 19-year-old and helping his physical skills catch up to his mental abilities may be worth a flier at the back end of the lottery.