The Chicago Bulls are staring down the barrel of a critical summer. Although the year ended with a(nother) embarrassing loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament, their strong finish to the regular season cannot be ignored.
The Bulls went 17-10 after the All-Star break, good for the fifth-best record in the NBA, and 15-5 in their final 20 games. Josh Giddey was 0.9 assists shy of averaging a triple-double in those last 20 contests. Coby White averaged 25.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists in that span.
Rookie Matas Buzelis finally earned a starting spot in Billy Donovan's lineup for the final 31 games and rewarded his coach's trust by scoring 13.0 points per game while grabbing 4.5 rebounds and dishing out 1.9 assists during that stretch. He led the Bulls in blocks and, frankly, deserves a spot on one of the league's All-Rookie teams.
One of the few things VP of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas has done right recently is get his team's 2025 first-round pick back (that he traded away in 2021), giving the franchise control of all its first-round selections moving forward.
Once again, choosing to aim for a Play-In spot over an all-out tank, though, has Chicago hoping and praying that luck will be on its side when the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on May 12. After an unfortunate twist of events, that hope seems to be growing more and more futile.
Bulls' odds of landing No. 1 pick in 2025 draft take another hit
Before the All-Star break, the Bulls had the eighth-best odds of winning the lottery and the opportunity to grab an organization-altering prospect like Cooper Flagg. But after that strong stretch run and the postseason loss to Miami, Chicago was tied with the Dallas Mavericks for 11th in the lottery standings.
Make that 12th after a random tiebreaker went in favor of the Mavs.
The difference between Chicago and Dallas is still minuscule—the Bulls have a 1.7 percent chance of winning the lottery, while Dallas has a 1.8 percent chance.
The real kicker is that, were Karnisovas and Donovan not so stubbornly opposed to tanking, that percentage could have been much higher. Even staying at that No. 8 spot would've given the Bulls a 6.0 percent chance at Flagg and a 7.2 percent chance at a top-four pick.
Coming to a decision on Giddey's free agency is No. 1 on the team's offseason priority list, but nailing its lottery pick is barely a notch below. That selection's likely placement in the teens makes things more difficult for Karnisovas and Co.
Rather than being in position for a top center prospect like Duke's Khaman Maluach, the Bulls will have to shop in the bargain bin, so to speak, for an upgrade to their frontcourt.
Losing this tiebreaker to the Mavs shouldn't have a massive effect on the team's eventual draft spot, but it's certainly more disappointment.