Brooklyn Nets' Cam Thomas has joined an illustrious, er… notable group of former first-round draft picks who have signed their qualifying offers as restricted free agents since 2017.
Thomas is now the sixth former first-rounder to sign his qualifying offer, joining Alex Len in 2017, Nerlens Noel in 2017, Rodney Hood in 2018, Denzel Valentine in 2020, and Miles Bridges in 2020. Of the five, Bridges is the only player to sign a deal worth more than $6 million annually.
Signing a qualifying offer hasn't turned out well in the past
Len signed a two-year pact, worth $8.5 million; Noel notoriously rejected a four-year, $70 million contract from the Dallas Mavericks, only to sign a two-year minimum deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder; Hood re-upped with the Portland Trail Blazers for two years and $11.7 million; and Valentine signed his qualifying offer with the Chicago Bulls, only to sign a two-year, partially guaranteed contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021.
Bridges’ situation differed from that of the other four players. After four impressive seasons with the Charlotte Hornets, including a 20.2 points per game campaign in 2021-22, Bridges was suspended for the entire 2022-23 season. He signed his qualifying offer for 2023–24, then followed it with a three-year, $75 million deal in 2024.
Thomas, along with fellow restricted free agents Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, and Quentin Grimes, faces a situation far different from those of Len, Noel, Hood, Valentine, and Bridges.
Thomas averaged 24.0 points per game last season, albeit in only 25 appearances. Nonetheless, he posted 22.5 points per game over 66 appearances the previous season. Thomas is a proven scorer, but beyond that, his game is limited. Still, Valentine, for example, had averaged 7.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists with the Bulls before signing with the Cavaliers. Eight years ago—or even less—Thomas likely would have received a more lucrative contract than the reported two-year, $30 million deal from the Nets.
However, times have changed, and with the harsh rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), teams are less willing to hand out money to players who aren't necessarily stars. Numerous quality free agents signed contracts well below market value, and settled for short-term pacts.
Josh Giddey's restricted free agency situation is different
Being a restricted free agent has made securing an exorbitant, long-term contract nearly impossible. Despite exceeding expectations and showing significant growth with the Bulls last season, Giddey has yet to receive a contract offer he’s comfortable signing. There's just no leverage for this group of players, considering salary space has dried up league-wide.
Therefore, accepting his $11.1 million qualifying offer is a logical route for Giddey to take. With Thomas forging a once-unthinkable path, the stage is set for Giddey, Grimes, and Kuminga to follow.
After all, $11.1 million isn't all that far off Chicago's reported offer of $22 million annually. If Giddey signs his qualifying offer and then outperforms expectations again in 2025–26, he could secure a contract worth well over $30 million, recouping lost earning potential.
Signing a qualifying offer isn't the end of the world, especially considering today's market. Still, results from the past have been anything but pretty. Again, the predicaments from years past are far different, but Thomas' decision to sign his qualifying offer is certainly a bold one that others may soon follow.