The Chicago Bulls received a major gift in the NBA Draft Lottery, jumping from ninth overall to a top-four selection in a class with a set of majorly-gifted prospects in its upper echelons.
But at fourth overall, they don't really have a ton of optionality. This class has a clearly defined top-four— AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson— and the three teams above Chicago will determine who the Bulls are ultimately able to select.
It's likely that Bryson Graham, with his penchant for defense and athleticism, is hoping for Boozer or Wilson to be available when they come on the clock. There's also been talk of them potentially striking a deal with the Washington Wizards to trade up for the first overall pick, although that likely remains an outside possibility at this point.
In theory, the Bulls should be happy with any of these four prospects. But it's clear that three of them are better fits within Chicago's roster construction. While Peterson has the chance to be a star-level point guard at the NBA level, the other three have higher floors and more room to fit into Chicago's plans as immediately impactful contributors.
Bulls writer Sam Smith, in his recent mailbag, took this sentiment a step further, calling Peterson a 'nightmare' pick for the team.
"As I’ve mentioned, Peterson is my Bulls nightmare pick. If he gets to No. 4 and they take him, I’ll be rooting for him. But given their seasons ,among the projected top four he seems the only bust possibility. Not that the other three will be All-Stars; they might, but they all look like they’ll be reliable high level starters with buoyant personalities. Peterson has this big time star potential, which I don’t quite see, though it was difficult as many games as he missed or left early." Sam Smith
Although Peterson is certainly one of the top talents in this class, Smith's stance is more than defensible. The problem is that, as of now, the Bulls don't have many options to ensure that Peterson isn't the pick they're left with.
Darryn Peterson would be the worst outcome for the Bulls at fourth overall, but they don't have many paths to avoiding it
When Peterson was healthy and clicking this season, he certainly seemed like he had the potential to be the top talent in this class. Across 24 games at Kansas, Peterson averaged 20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc.
But as Smith highlights, Peterson's injury and availability concerns, combined with some of the volatility in his offensive game, have left a number of teams with doubts about his translation to the NBA level. Peterson was limited by serious cramping and a hamstring strain during his lone college season, resulting in spotty availability and some confusing public-facing moments.
Of course, no pick (even a top-four selection) is guaranteed to work out.
Each of Dybantsa, Boozer, and Wilson, though, have defined skill-sets coupled with the size and offensive acumen to have clearly-chartable paths to NBA success. Of the top four prospects, Peterson is the only one that carries significant doubt into the Draft. The three teams ahead of Chicago— the Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Memphis Grizzlies— will certainly see that as well.
The Wizards, for their part, will almost certainly select Dybantsa if they stay put at first overall. They need a long-term primary scoring option, and the BYU product fits that profile exactly. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, will likely take one of Wilson or Boozer given their decision to move on from Jaren Jackson Jr. at last season's trade deadline.
The Jazz, with their established frontcourt of the aforementioned Jackson, Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler, could be the Bulls' saving grace. They could use a player of Peterson's skill-set in the backcourt, and they might be willing to ignore some of the questions surrounding him in exchange for a high-upside prospect.
But there's clearly a world in which Peterson is the lone prospect from this group still available at fourth overall. It might not be fair to describe this as a 'nightmare' scenario, but it certainly wouldn't be an ideal one.
Would the Bulls be willing to select outside of the consensus top-four prospects in order to get a guard more suited to their long-term vision? Would they be willing to trade up or down in order avoid landing with Peterson? Or would they simply make the pick and hope that Peterson quickly proves his doubters wrong?
It's a set of questions that won't be answered until the NBA Draft has arrived. But as the Draft creeps closer, it's a scenario that's worth thinking about at this juncture.
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