The Chicago Bulls have been in a restricted free agency standoff with Josh Giddey all offseason. Giddey wants more than what the Bulls are willing to offer, but the team may be feeling pressure if he’s willing to sign a qualifying offer.
But the Bulls must avoid falling into the trap of the sunk cost fallacy and giving Giddey what he wants because of their past decisions.
The Bulls front office needs to make decisions in the present
Now that the first restricted free agent domino has fallen with Cam Thomas accepting his qualifying offer, other players in his position may feel inspired to do the same. Of course, accepting such an offer gives Thomas full control of his destiny next year and makes it likely that he will leave the Brooklyn Nets for nothing as an unrestricted free agent.
The Bulls may be afraid of Giddey doing the same, but they can’t let that fear control their decision-making.
Bulls management and fans also feel pressure to re-sign Giddey to a longer deal because he was the only return for Alex Caruso, long considered a top trade target during his Bulls tenure. However, being stuck in the past like that is exactly what can lead the Bulls to jeopardize their future.
The front office already made these mistakes in the last iteration of the team, opting to give players like Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic lucrative contracts when they were unable to get the Bulls over the hump. Some of this thinking was inspired by what the Bulls originally gave up to acquire those players and what they originally expected them to be.
With Giddey, the Bulls have seen some evidence of his upward trajectory. But the team has to really evaluate his realistic value in the current and future when deciding what contract to give him.
Will he truly be able to help the Bulls ascend into real contention, or will he be just good enough to keep them stuck in mediocrity even longer?
It’s sad to lose key players in free agency, but it’s not always a long-term loss if they don’t fit into your timeline. Giddey is a good player who does a lot on the court, but he is unlikely to be the ultimate catalyst for a deep playoff run. The last thing the Bulls want to do is repeat mistakes like the Patrick Williams contract or the Immanuel Quickley contract that the Toronto Raptors are currently stuck with.
The Bulls, of course, have some attachment to Giddey already, but need to learn when to cut him loose if he’s asking for too much. For a team that’s not a championship contender, this sort of ultra-logical management is key to building a championship future.