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Looking at the Chicago Bulls rebuild with a sober eye

By Nicholas Niendorf

Chicago Bulls (Anthony Souffle/Chicago Tribune/TNS via Getty Images)
Chicago Bulls (Anthony Souffle/Chicago Tribune/TNS via Getty Images) /
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Let’s discuss how to properly process the upcoming rebuild, Chicago Bulls fans.

The biggest misconception Chicago Bulls fans have about any rebuild is that time and improvement both occur at the same rate, hand in hand.

And it makes sense when one looks at the stereotypical rebuild on paper.

The team will likely start by trading most of the meaningful players on the roster for draft picks and young players. The team is then bad for a handful of years and stumbles into a number of low draft picks during that time. Low draft picks in the NBA, say top-5 picks, pan out into legitimate contributors more often than they become complete busts. These players form your core.

During the middle part of a team’s rebuild, they’ll start moving higher and higher in the draft, picking up role players rather than starters along the way.

There will be a fairly-significant trade at some point, usually to consolidate some of the leftover assets who don’t fit into the picture anymore or to acquire a star from another team.

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Eventually, you have a legitimate team that goes from sneaking into the playoffs to legitimate championship contention in an acceptable amount of time.

However, linear progression is incredibly rare.

Just look at the Detroit Pistons, who have made the playoffs once in the past eight seasons, yet show no signs of being legitimate threats in what seems to be one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory.

The Pistons’ star player and other-worldly rebounder, Andre Drummond, is coming off of a down year where he didn’t progress as much as many thought he would. Their starting point guard, Reggie Jackson, just finished an injury-riddled year after playing in 79 games the season before. Detroit has also flirted with the luxury tax line for the past few years and only have one first round appearance to show for it.

There is simply no guarantee of future success in the NBA, especially without a consistent, proven front office. While games are won by players and coaching, general managers and presidents still steer the ship.

Chicago Bulls fans should still be excited about the future. Watching young players fulfill their potential and become legitimate NBA talents is awesome, so long as you can stomach losing for a while. The struggles of rebuilds make postseason appearances and victories all the sweeter.

But, Chicago should not look forward with rose-colored glasses. Every fan should have a healthy dose of skepticism. Don’t forget the exhausting rebuilds following Michael Jordan’s second retirement.

From the 1998-99 to the 2009-10 seasons, a 12-season span, the Bulls won an average of about 31 games. Seven of those seasons ended in below-.500 finishes, and three of them of resulted in 41-41 records.

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    • While the Bulls made the playoffs five times during that period, they only made it out of the first round once: during the 2007 Playoffs where they lost in six games to the Detroit Pistons.

    When Chicago did finally get a star, it wasn’t because the Bulls were the worst team in the NBA, they were projected to get the ninth pick after winning 33 games. It also wasn’t because they had made any trades to put themselves into contention for the top pick.

    The Bulls simply lucked into the first pick and future league MVP Derrick Rose, after only having 1.7% of a chance to get it.

    Just as time isn’t a guarantee of progression, it also isn’t a guarantee of constraint.

    In one fell swoop, Chicago became relevant and immediately made the playoffs with Rose. They then won 62 games and made the Eastern Conference Finals just three seasons after that 33-win season.

    But now the Bulls once again have to rebuild the hard way.

    They have the advantage of entering their rebuild with a lot of youth on the roster, a luxury many teams don’t have. While most of these players have proven next-to-nothing, it’s a start.

    However, as hard as getting legitimate, young talent will be, not squandering it will be even harder. Development, health, and contracts can all stand in the way of progress, and the Bulls front office will have a hand in much of that.

    Next: 5 best Bulls players since Michael Jordan

    Trusting Chicago’s rebuild means, for the time being, trusting Gar Forman and John Paxson. That fact alone should sober fans clamoring for the future.

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