Evaluating Nikola Mirotic’s future in Chicago

Despite an active offseason, the Chicago Bulls still have one big decision to make regarding restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic.

Nikola Mirotic is coming off an inconsistent and underwhelming season where he averaged 10.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and an assist per game. Inconsistency is the key to evaluating his worth and the irregularity of his performances has kept suitors away so far this offseason.

But, Mirotic’s strong performance in the latter part of this year forces teams to at least give him a look. For Chicago, his heroics towards the end of the season have become ritual. If the Bulls were a team vying for a deep NCAA tournament run, he would be one of the most coveted forwards in basketball.

Mirotic has scored 20 or more points 30 times in his career, so far. 21 of those outbursts have occurred in the months of March and April. Like clockwork, he explodes in the waning days of the NBA season, distracting from the lackluster performances which make up the bulk of his work. Each offseason has left Bulls fans hopeful that Mirotic’s recently-elevated game is a sign of things to come.

The 2015-16 season saw him undergo an appendectomy in February, the recovery of which caused him to lose 17 pounds and miss 11 games. Despite inconsistent output following the surgery and subsequent weight loss, Mirotic still managed to have a string of impressive games, including a career-high 35 points in March against the New York Knicks.

But, for the third consecutive year, Mirotic has failed to build on a successful finish. Where his production late in the season once generated excitement, now elicits frustration.

So, with the Bulls staring a rebuild in the face, the question remains: how high can you be on a 26-year-old like Mirotic?

For somebody whose specialty is shooting, he hasn’t done it very well.

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His 3-point percentage is 35 percent for his career and it dipped down to 34.2 percent this past season. He’s also never had a very good field goal percentage, largely due to the high volume of 3s he takes and the lack of diversity in his game.

Nevertheless, he’s a player who can provide scoring, especially from the perimeter. When he’s on he can have a huge impact on the game. There still remains hope that he’ll put it all together and find some way to get buckets on a regular, more efficient basis.

But what else does he contribute when his jump shot is off?

For one, Mirotic has a fairly impressive handle for a 6’10” forward. While not dazzling, he’s more than capable of snagging a defensive rebound and running the floor on the break, although he lacks transition playmaking abilities. Despite this skill, he rarely uses his handle to score.

In the 2016-17 season, Mirotic only scored 29 percent of his points off the dribble. The vast majority of that 29 percent came from only one or two dribbles.

But it’s no secret that Mirotic, who gets the majority of his points off of assisted shots, doesn’t exactly wow with creativity. So far, he’s really only shown scoring ability as a shooter.

It’s not that he doesn’t perform well in other aspects of scoring. Rather, he simply doesn’t try. Any insight gleaned by looking at his effectiveness on hook shots, cuts, or anything else is nearly worthless because the sample size is so small. Whether he’s too infatuated with perimeter shooting to expand his game or if he simply has no game to expand upon, Mirotic hasn’t shown many signs of improving elsewhere.

His defense is perpetually frustrating, just not for opposing teams. He hasn’t show the flash nor the numbers of a promising playmaker, and his rebounding is below-average for his position.

For now, Mirotic’s value is almost solely reliant on his effectiveness as a spot-up, 3-point shooting specialist.

Even if Mirotic can’t significantly improve his consistency or his defense, raising the floor of his offensive performances would go a long way in making him a valuable piece off the bench.

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There were too many nights this season where his poor performance in the first five minutes dictated what his performance would be like for the next 15 minutes. Developing some semblance of a go-to inside game would go a long way towards alleviating that.

But, seemingly everything positive about Mirotic is rooted in potential; that promising word that the Bulls franchise loves. Relying on the potential of somebody who has been playing professionally since he was barely a teenager is a big ask. And honestly, that’s okay for this Bulls teams.

Provided the contract is right.

One scenario where the Bulls have a huge incentive to bring Mirotic back is if he doesn’t find any offers he likes elsewhere.

He hasn’t drawn much of any free agency buzz so far, which bodes well for the Bulls. If Chicago can get away with Mirotic signing the current qualifying offer on the table, which carries a cap hit of $10,986,655, the risk tied in with bringing him back is greatly reduced.

Alternatively, if the Bulls find themselves content with whatever final roster they have assembled, they can use some of the remaining cap space to entice Mirotic to come back for another season on a bigger, but still shorter deal.

Each of these scenarios essentially gives Mirotic a one or two-year “prove yourself” contract. He puts himself in a position with the potential to get plenty of minutes, as well as the opportunity to play himself into a larger payday in the 2018 offseason while the Bulls also retain flexibility.

However, both instances rely on the rest of the league holding its ground and not offering Mirotic any lucrative contracts, thereby giving Chicago all the leverage. It’s unlikely he would turn down any multi-year deals with a decent payout in favor of a single-year shot on a rebuilding team.

If an organization comes into the fold with their checkbook out, the Bulls would be prudent to step away from the table. Signing Mirotic to a bloated contract with the mentality that the he can always be traded away is a recipe for disappointment.

Next: GarPax are incapable of rebuilding the Chicago Bulls

There’s still hope for Mirotic to become a productive NBA player. Whether or not the Bulls believe they’re the team that will realize that productivity remains to be seen.