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Kris Dunn: The difference between a rebuild and mediocrity

By Omaid Razzaq

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 28: Kris Dunn #3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves brings the ball down court against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on December 28, 2016 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 28: Kris Dunn #3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves brings the ball down court against the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on December 28, 2016 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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Kris Dunn will make or break the Bulls rebuild.

2011 seems like ancient history to most Bulls fans these days. In fact, looking at the Bulls point guards, once having a 22-year-old hometown MVP seems as ludicrous the Butler trade. Kris Dunn might be the Bulls best hope.

Both Kris Dunn and Cameron Payne are out for the remainder of summer league, and were supposed to compete with Jerian Grant for the starting position going into next year.

Point guard is the deepest position in the NBA, yet the Bulls have managed to acquire three that seem to have no business playing meaningful minutes. However, of the three, Dunn is the most intriguing.

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Kris Dunn fits the mold of John Paxson and Gar Forman’s ideal young player, athletic and experienced. Dunn played three years of college ball at Providence, winning Big East Player of the Year twice. Like Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, the Bulls think the extra years in college will benefit Dunn early in his career.

Going into the draft, Dunn epitomized the archetype of a modern NBA point guard. Listed at 6’4, Dunn had all the physical tools to succeed. Elite burst, quick hands, a tremendous vertical, and a 6’9 wingspan often meant he was the best athlete on the floor playing in major conference.

At the very least, Dunn was expected to be an excellent defender. The icing on top was that he also had a great feel for the game offensively.

In college, Kris Dunn was a superb pick and roll ball handler. He had the athleticism to attack the rim, but also understood how to get the looks he wanted with his ability to control his pace within a possession. Dunn also showed he could shoot the basketball, both from beyond the arc and off the dribble.

All of that disappeared his rookie year. Dunn struggled to adjust to the pace of the NBA game, his athletic advantages vanished, and his shot abandoned him. Dunn shot an abysmal 37.7 percent from the field, and a putrid 28.8 percent from three. To top things off, his defense was simply atrocious.

That said, point guard is the most difficult position in the NBA, and a lot of players struggle to adapt their rookie year.

It took players like Mike Conley Jr. years to figure out the NBA play style and now he’s one of the best point guards in the league. As far as comparisons, the closest to Dunn’s situation would be Kemba Walker.

Like Dunn, Kemba played three years in college and had an extremely underwhelming rookie season, never getting a consistent opportunity to start. Walker actually shot even worse than Dunn from the field, at 36.6 percent, although he was better from three.

The next season, Walker took over the starting role full-time and took a huge step forward increasing his scoring average by five points and becoming much more efficient from the field.

Don’t expect Dunn to average Walker’s second year 17.7 points, 5.7 assists, and 3.5 rebounds, but if he can earn the starting role, he should have plenty of opportunities to at least learn how to play at the NBA level.

Moving forward, even modest improvements to his efficiency and decision-making should serve him well, especially given his incredible physical tools. If he can demonstrate an ability to be a competent starter, there’s still a window for him to develop into a good player.

Last season, Dunn only averaged 17 minutes a night and played behind Ricky Rubio, an above average starter. In Chicago, there’s hardly any reason for him not to start. Cameron Payne is okay at best, and Jerian Grant is uninspiring. The Bulls might as well give Dunn the keys, as he has the highest upside.

The biggest thing working against Dunn is that it often takes point guards a few years to hit their stride. Unfortunately, given his injury woes early in college, Dunn had to stay the full four years at Providence.

At 23 years old, he’s already older than other “project” point guards like Emmanuel Mudiay and Dante Exum, who have had similar uninspiring starts, but whereas they still have a few years to develop- the clock is ticking on Dunn.

As an asset, Dunn’s value is entirely contingent on internal development. That is a troubling sign for someone of his age. No teams are going to be calling about a 23-year-old point guard that hasn’t shown anything at the NBA level.

He has to show some level of improvement to justify the team’s confidence that he can be the point guard of the future, otherwise the Bulls might head into the 2018 Draft looking for a younger and better point guard, a truly disastrous outcome for the Butler trade.

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The Bulls aren’t going anywhere next season, so there’s no harm in Dunn playing through mistakes in order to learn. If Dunn breaks out, the Bulls will have a foundational piece for years to come. If not, they may have traded away Butler for zero starters and may start to look a lot like the Orlando Magic.

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