Fred Hoiberg continuing to outsmart Brad Stevens
The Boston Celtics are notorious for being an overachieving NBA team. The Chicago Bulls are notorious for being an underachieving team. That should be reversed in the playoffs.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton’s analysis of a possible eighth seed upsetting a top seed with the Bulls-Celtics matchup is based on the fact that Boston’s point differential (+2.7 points per game) was the lowest for a No. 1 seed since the 1978-79 Seattle SuperSonics.
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Another eye test-based deduction from that stat and if you’ve been watching the Celtics play this year is that they’ve won by stealing games all season long. Boston is not going to sneak up on anybody in the playoffs unless that opponent is sloppy.
Needless to say, the Celtics are overrated and at 53 wins, the top seed in the East does not an NBA champion become. They don’t really dominate opponents like any of the previous NBA champions because they just stay close all game long with other teams then pull out the rug from beneath you by having a small guy chuck up 3s with the other team not expecting what’s coming. All things considered, Boston is a one-trick pony.
The rest of the Celtics are role-playing perimeter shooters. Plus, IT is the worst defender in the league. He’s even worse even than former Bull Doug McDermott.
Hoiberg has the players to beat the Celtics by out-rebounding them and playing better one-on-one D, along with getting quick scores because the Celtics chuck the 3 too much and percentages tend to even up if the Bulls just convert off the misses.
The Bulls can’t waste possessions. That’s what makes Boston a dangerous team. They overhaul double-digit leads in the last two minutes of a game just when the opposing team is just going through the motions of the game.
Portis held his own on offense in Game 1 and the Bulls stayed in the game to win at the end. In Game 2, Boston was in a shooting funk because of the Bulls’ defense and Hoiberg outsmarted Stevens by using Zipser and Mirotic playing the same game as Portis with Stevens planning for a Portis presence.
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If Hoiberg can get that kind of smart player rotations going and his players rise up to the challenge, the team they will be tough to beat.