Chicago Bulls Preseason Over/Under Predictions for Wade, Valentine

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Sep 26, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Denzel Valentine (45) poses for a photo during Bulls media day at The Advocate Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports /

Denzel Valentine PPG: 9.6

Sure, this seems like a totally arbitrary number. It is back with all kinds of incredible data-mined science.

Valentine was drafted to bring in another scoring option for Chicago. The Bulls are incredibly thin when it comes to shooting accuracy from the perimeter. It was a combination of drafting the best available player and getting the guy who seemed like the safest bet to put up decent or slightly above-average number by the time Chicago loses team control many years from now.

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He may be a rookie, but we still have a small set of numbers to use for projecting his preseason scoring performance – the Las Vegas Summer League. In seven games at the Vegas tournament, Valentine averaged 11.6 points per game. That points to taking the over on his scoring average.

However, Valentine also averaged 29.9 minutes per game. That’s probably a bigger number than what he’ll see when he starts playing with the big boys.

This over/under actually ties in with Wade’s prediction. The Bulls have Rondo, Dinwiddie, Grant, D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, Thomas Walkup, Butler, and Isaiah Canaan in the backcourt. That’s a very crowded backcourt when you’re looking for minutes. Even if Wade doesn’t get anywhere near the completely random over/under we assigned to his minutes, there are still a whole bunch of other players who either need to get some repetitions under Hoiberg to prepare for the regular season or need to get some repetitions to audition for a roster spot or an offer with the Windy City Bulls.

It gets more difficult to make the call when his shooting numbers are factored in. While averaging 29.9 minutes, he only shot 35.2 percent from the field. If his NBA preseason struggles mirror his poor shooting in Vegas, he will have a particularly difficult time reaching 9.6 points. For the most part, he’s going to face stiffer competition now that he’s with the NBA team. If he couldn’t shoot even 40 percent against players who were inferior to him during the summer, how is he going to equal those numbers when he’s up against players that are all as good or better?

9.6 points seems like an easy mark for Valentine, but it’s tricky when you consider his poor summer shooting despite considerable time on the court. I’m taking the under on this one.

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