Dear Bulls, Part One: Forman, Free Agency and the Future

2016 NBA free agency opens in a matter of hours and the Chicago Bulls front office, led by General Manager Gar Forman, seems to have little sense of which direction the franchise is headed.

Chicago is in flux; this is obvious to anyone paying attention to professional basketball in the United States. After the boom of the Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen-led dynastic 1990s, the Bulls receded to the margins, toiling in obscurity and disappointment for a decade. Eventually, fortune smiled upon them. The team built around lucky draft selections like Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. Chicago forged a hard-nosed defensive identity under modern NBA savant Tom Thibodeau.

And then it all fell apart.

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Injuries, turmoil within the team and between head coach and front office, and time all conspired against the Bulls.

Rose is gone. Noah is all but gone. Thibodeau is gone. Butler was nearly gone, multiple times, according to rumors. Even with Butler still here, this is an entirely different franchise. The stable of All-Stars, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Valuable Player, and Coach of the Year is almost stripped bare.

In all of this, there is a very real sense of frustration. It has spread from within the team to the media to the fans. The only response from Forman up to this point has been to point to the impressive regular season record of the Bulls over the past decade, the best in the Eastern Conference he’s quick to remind everyone at every press conference.

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They don’t hang banners or hand out trophies for winning the regular season, Gar.

As it stands, there appear to be two great options for Chicago moving forward. Today, we explore the first option: wait for 2017.

This week we’ve covered some of the best free agents available at each position. Players like Mike Conley, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant, Al Horford and Dwight Howard will all be available to the best fit and highest bidder. Adding to the excitement is the booming salary cap, which jumps from $70 million in 2015-16, which was an all-time high, to $94 million in 2016-17. The new money mark obliterates the old mark, essentially adding a near-max space for almost every team in the league. Just as incredible, the cap isn’t done moving up. In 2017, the cap is projected to jump to around $107 million where it will even out after the shockwave of the new television revenue subsides.

With all this space, two things are certain about the upcoming free agent class of 2016.

Apr 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (21) shoots a free throw during the first quarter of the game against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /

First, teams are going to have the financial flexibility to chase marquee players and the bidding will be intense, possibly comical. Under the old cap, Dwight Howard would have never dared to opt out of a $23 million player option with the Houston Rockets. With the old cap, Noah would have found lukewarm response to his free agency, perhaps garnering a salary similar to what he earns now, but probably less if he wants to move to any contender. Instead, the Washington Wizards are already chasing him with a max deal that would pay the former Defensive Player of the Year $28 million in the first season of a max deal, which would escalate each season. Yes, we are talking about the same Noah who is now on the wrong side of age 30 and has experienced significant injury setbacks over the past few seasons. It’s a new world.

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Second, everyone knows they are going to get paid. PAID. Harrison Barnes is a restricted free agent who will get offered a four-year max by multiple teams. If the Warriors elect to keep him, he will be getting paid around double what his teammate Steph Curry is getting. Maybe you’ve heard of Curry, the best 3-point shooter in the history of the game, back-to-back MVP and key piece of the greatest regular season team to ever play in the league. That’s the reality of the new market that everyone from agents to players to owners to general managers to fans need to keep in mind. We are entering a new reality and until the market adjusts, players who wouldn’t normally be paid on par with Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees are about to do so and we are bound to see a few Andrew Bynum or Rudy Gay type deals, there’s just too much money and not enough talent to absorb it rationally.

The Bulls should wait.

Once you understand this new money world, you have to think pragmatically about the Bulls and their options. There needs to be an intersection of hopes, dreams, and reality. Chicago is not the primary free agent destination of the NBA, but has the flexibility to offer large deals or near-max offers to many players. But, they shouldn’t do that.

If Gar is anywhere near the level of lost as he appears to be, this is what he should do during the upcoming free agency window.

The Bulls should wait. It can be very frustrating as a fan, but inaction right now is the best option for Chicago, both for this young roster in the now and for the future of the franchise beyond this season.

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To now, we’ve explained that there is a new reality in the market where there is more money to spend and not enough big-time free agents to spend all that extra cash securing to long-term deals. Also, we explained that players and their agents know the money is there to be spent.

On the current market, your best free agents aren’t entertaining the Bulls or aren’t worth long-term commitments. It is really that simple. Mike Conley isn’t the point guard of the future for the Bulls. If they could get him on a two-year deal with a third year option, they should jump. However, Conley is going to want max money, and will get it, and a four-year deal if he leaves Memphis. To be clear, there is no reason to think that Conley will take less than the Grizzlies five-year offer with max salary and the max 7.5 percent annual raises. The only way Conley leaves Memphis would be the lack of such an offer. Forman would be right to not offer four years to a 28-year-old point guard who is probably somewhere around the top 10 of his position in the league, but not higher. And Conley is the best option for the Bulls at point guard. They may pursue Rajon Rondo, but only on a one-year offer.

In building a narrative that says signing any of these free agent options is a bad idea, here is what I’m saying instead: go for broke in 2017.

The same situation persists at shooting guard where the Bulls should not get into a max offer for Dwyane Wade who is a world-class talent, but well past his best playing days. And small forward is similar, with no players standing out beyond Kevin Durant. It doesn’t appear that Forman is pursuing Durant this off-season, but Durant might not be accepting a meeting anyway. It is rumored that Durant is only extending opportunities for pitches to a select few teams, particularly San Antonio, Golden State, and Oklahoma City. Horford is a possibility, but also has reached an age where any GM would be right to balk at the money and length of contract.

Chicago also did right by trading for Robin Lopez, a trade that is universally under-appreciated due to the emotional pain that it cost. True, parting with Rose was painful and no one wanted it. Also true, he wasn’t coming back after 2016-17 anyway. Forman knew this and he made a move to bring back a cost-controlled center who is playing near his prime. Not only is the contract great and the move an upgrade at center, the move to bring in Lopez frees the Bulls to move on from getting mired by the lingering of Pau Gasol and Noah who are clearly no longer in the Chicago picture, thankfully. The benefits of the trade don’t stop there either. By securing a center for the next three years, they don’t need to be dragged into the Howard free agency circus and won’t be suckered into an overpay for Ian Mahinmi or Bismack Biyombo, maybe.

In building a narrative that says signing any of these free agent options is a bad idea, here is what I’m saying instead: go for broke in 2017.

Durant will be back on the market in 2017. Russell Westbrook will be joining him. If the Bulls choose to rely on their young core to struggle through 2016-17 and find out which players are going to sink or swim at the NBA level, they will be primed to pursue the best available free agents at point guard and small forward to compliment Jimmy Butler, already a top five two-way guard/forward combo, Lopez and whatever cast of Nikola Mirotic, Bobby Portis, Doug McDermott, and Denzel Valentine.

It doesn’t stop with Westbrook and Durant. Blake Griffin will be a free agent. Same for Serge Ibaka, LeBron James, Steph Curry, Rose, and Jeff Teague. There are also going to be a large number of restricted free agents that will likely be retained by their teams, but Chicago will have the room to chase: Victor Oladipo, Nerlens Noel, CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gorgui Dieng, and Rudy Gobert.

The point is simple and clear: wait. It’s a message that I repeat, but it needs to be said.

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The Bulls are right to wait. They will not be a contender in 2016-17 no matter who is on the roster and that means handing out large amounts of money to any player that clogs the booming salary cap and doesn’t make the team a winner immediately is a bad deal. The Bulls have a roster filled with young talent and they need to take a season to evaluate that talent and determine how the pieces they have fit around players they can add next season. If the Bulls are going to spend all of their money, they are best served saving that money for the class of 2017.

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