After the 2016 NBA Draft and the Derrick Rose trade, the Chicago Bulls roster sits at eleven total players in the era of Gar Forman’s retooling. Let’s see how they look on paper and how that will work on the court.
The Chicago Bulls have four spots open on a potential 15-man roster.
The Derrick Rose trade brought in two rotation players in center, Robin Lopez and point guard Jerian Grant, plus one expiring contract in Jose Calderon.
On top of the trade, the 2016 NBA Draft brought in AP Player of the Year and NBA-ready playmaker Denzel Valentine and a steal of a three-and-D wing in German forward Paul Zipser.
If we plug these new recruits into the Bulls roster, this is how the team looks right now.
Starters
Starters on the Bulls should include: Denzel Valentine, Doug McDermott, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic and Robin Lopez.
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The fact that Robin Lopez is the strongest defensive post player on the Bulls squad ensures that there will be significantly less than 28.8 layups given up per game by the Bulls whenever he is on the floor.
Butler defends the best guard in the opponent’s lineup and allows Lopez to play more of an old-school center role as a rim protector.
The three Bulls players who may look weak on paper on defense can funnel everyone into either Butler or Lopez; the way the Knicks did when Robin played as their center.
Valentine can run the team with the two shooters at the forward spots. During his senior season at Michigan State, Valentine dropped 19.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game.
His NBA point production may hover around 10 or less a game, given that his main job on the Bulls is to feed the tall scorers and Butler.
Expect his rebound totals to diminish down to half his college stats deferring to the Bulls bigs.
But, his 7.1 assist average is going to balloon because of the quality of shooters around him. You can expect new lob plays to be called for Butler off movement traps with Valentine running the show.
The weakest link in Valentine’s game is defense.
The video above shows us a great passer, but a defensive liability that resembles McDermott. Valentine will get toasted by NBA All-Star guards as a rookie worse than Aaron Brooks got burned, so the Bulls must compensate by getting additional defensive wings, shot-blockers and assign Valentine on the weakest offensive player.
Valentine should never be guarding never guarding players at his position that are lightning-quick and can blow past him with ease.
If the starters are too porous defensively, you can probably expect Hoiberg to run with Spencer Dinwiddie at point guard or even Jerian Grant and move Valentine to the second unit.
Lopez and Butler are there to clean up the misses because Butler now plays in the paint and off-ball like a small-ball power forward. Lopez did a lot of hard work in New York, boxing out two bigs so Kristaps Porzingis could grab rebounds and block shots from the weakside and score inside via mismatches with the veteran center keeping opposing bigs at bay.
Lopez will do a lot more rim protecting and rebounding with the Bulls to allow Mirotic and Bobby Portis to help score inside while both he and Cristiano Felicio inside form a “Bruise Brothers” combo that will be tough to beat.
I really expect Mirotic and McDermott to start and fill in for Rose and Pau Gasol‘s missing scoring load with Butler pitching in his own shots. The Bulls may tweak the lineup and start Portis and stagger Mirotic and McDermott’s minutes instead of playing them in tandem. The Bulls get more offensive rebounding from Portis and mid-range jumpers, while Mirotic gets the opposing forward into foul trouble more trying to guard him.
If the Bulls want hot starts and the ability to jump on teams early, there is no way they don’t start McDermott and set some plays around him with Butler as a legitimate second option.
Bench
In the second unit for the Bulls, we have Bobby Portis and Paul Zipser in the forward positions, Cristiano Felicio at center, Jerian Grant and/or Spencer Dinwiddie as the playmaker lead guard and Tony Snell at the shooting guard spot.
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The Bulls’ second unit is there to inject energy and pace, holding the fort down on defense and keeping the offense moving. Portis and Zipser will be expected to generate enough sniping from long range, while Grant runs the pick-and-dive with Felicio or set up Snell off screens for slashing drives to the rim.
Dinwiddie can alternate with Grant and run a faster-paced second unit if he is the playmaker and give the Bulls a look similar to what he did for Detroit: drive and kick-outs, overpowering smaller guards to the hoop with his length and longer strides or shooting the corner three himself.
The Bulls still have three-point shooting with their second unit with Snell, Zipser and Portis expected to knock down their threes and mid-range shots. Grant and Dinwiddie are expected to get into form running the new flow offense. Playmaking is still their focus to keep the team’s scoring efficiently and are not expected to hog the ball.
Look at the video below and you just might see why Gar Forman seems excited about having Paul Zipser at training camp. His game somewhat resembles Jimmy Butler before he broke out.
Zipser is someone who is strong enough to muscle the ball to the rim from the wings and score through contact. He can do the same thing through a weakly-defended middle. Zipser shoots off screens and snipes from long range better than Butler, plays fearlessly on both offense and defense.
He hovers around a driving opponent and times his jump for blocking floater shots very well. He’s a bit slower than Jimmy as far as athleticism and isn’t as explosive going to the hoop, but he gets there like a bulldozer. Zipser plays with methodical purpose to destroy the opposing team with quick playmaking decisions for the easy score whether he is shooting, defending or passing to his teammates.
As you can see, the roster looks rather incomplete and thin, but from what we know of how everyone plays their A-game, this isn’t a terrible team.
Zipser may well surprise us along with Dinwiddie playing up to his promise coming out of college. Valentine may underwhelm on defense, but still hold his own as a pinpoint passer.
Even Justin Holiday took a little while to get into the groove, so give the new guys slack in a new team and system. Watching them play and sync is always the gauge for knowing — the so-called “eye test” — if we have a team or not regardless of stats.
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Zipser will surprise everyone if Hoiberg uses him like he does Butler. Two strong wings like Butler and Zipser should make you excited already.
How Gar Forman fills up the roster with more defensive bigs or wings should be crucial in making the team ready out of preseason or still one year away from starting the next chapter of the sensational soap opera known as the Chicago Bulls.
Pray Denzel’s not a bust and hope Dinwiddie and crew play true to form.
Lastly, may Jimmy know his place in the scheme of things and not go Hollywood again.
(The Bulls need your defense more than 20 points a game, Jimmy.)