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Fred Hoiberg’s Dilemma: Pau Gasol or Joakim Noah?

Michael Whitlow|

After a strong EuroBasket performance for Spain, Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic have continued to build chemistry and familiarity together. Could that lead to new Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg putting Mirotic in the starting lineup in Joakim Noah’s place?

When Pau Gasol signed a three-year deal last summer with the Chicago Bulls, the immediate thought around Chicago was, “Can you imagine how good the Bulls can be with two of the best passing big men in basketball?”

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Unfortunately for the Bulls, the Gasol-Joakim Noah duo didn’t work up front like many had expected, leading to congestion on the offensive end and a lack of space for the Bulls to execute in the half-court.

Thanks to the late-season rise of Nikola Mirotic off the bench for the Bulls due to injuries and a new offensive-minded coach manning the sideline for the Bulls, changes could be coming in Chicago this season.

On Sunday, Gasol and Mirotic helped Spain win EuroBasket 2015 over Lithuania. Gasol was the tournament’s best player, while Mirotic had a nice showing for Spain (via Montenegro) and continued to build his bond with Gasol.

“Niko and I playing this summer, I think it will develop our relationship on and off the court,” Gasol said. “And it will be another positive to transfer to our team in Chicago.”

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Not only did Mirotic surge onto the NBA scene during the spring last season, Joakim Noah took a giant step back from his stellar 2013-14 campaign, where he was named to the All-NBA First Team and won the NBA’s defensive player of the year award for the first time. Noah’s stressful 2014-15 season appeared to be due to heavy minutes from former head coach Tom Thibodeau off knee surgery last summer. Despite some good flashes of his former self, Noah looked like a complete shell of himself and have made many wonder if his time in Chicago is coming to an end.

But, the beauty of the current period is that the Bulls are receiving a fresh start. Last year’s six-game defeat to Cleveland in the postseason seems like a distant memory, as the Bulls have moved forward towards the future with some key offseason moves. Along with Hoiberg’s hiring, the Bulls kept Jimmy Butler and Mike Dunleavy in Chicago and away from other contenders. Throw in last season’s SEC player of the year Bobby Portis being drafted, and the Bulls seemed prepped and prime for a good future under Hoiberg.

So, with a clean slate and training camp on the horizon, what will Fred Hoiberg decide on in terms of his starting frontcourt?

Pau Gasol

Despite some health concerns during EuroBasket, Pau Gasol was clearly the best player in the tournament. Gasol averaged over 25 points per contest on 57.5 percent shooting during Spain’s run, and looked nothing like a guy that turned 35 years old in July.

Gasol may have had his fair shares of issues defensively last season (specifically in pick-and-roll sets for opponents), but his 4.0 BLK% was the highest of his career since 2006-07 and his defensive win shares (4.4), were the highest of his career since the 2005-06 season when he was 25 years old.

In Hoiberg’s quicker-paced offense, Gasol is going to be asked to do much more offensively than hit the 18-foot pick-and-pop jumpers and post up on the low blocks throughout the season. The pace of games will quicken under Hoiberg, and for a 35-year-old with some intense basketball already under his belt this year, you can’t help but be concerned over Gasol’s health if the Bulls want to make a deep playoff push this season.

Nikola Mirotic

Thanks to 82games.com, we can take a look at Nikola Mirotic’s top five-man units from his rookie season with the Bulls.

Photo Credit: 82games.com

Four of the top five-man units for Mirotic in his rookie season (based on minutes played together), were with Pau Gasol. Of course, you have to factor in the other three players on the floor, but the lowest points per possession total with Mirotic and Gasol together (with Mirotic playing his natural PF position) was 1.03. That’s not bad.

Here’s the thing with starting Mirotic and Gasol together that brings Joakim Noah into the picture: Can Mirotic and Gasol keep opponents off the board?

In the unit that Mirotic played with Noah the most last season — 34 total minutes with Aaron Brooks, Kirk Hinrich and Tony Snell — their defensive points per possession allowed was 0.81 with a 77% win percentage (7-2). Not too bad, right?

The counterargument to that:

Photo Credit: 82games.com

Mirotic played 47 total minutes with Gasol, Kirk Hinrich, Jimmy Butler and Mike Dunleavy, and posted a better defensive PPP than he did with Noah. Granted, playing with Butler and Dunleavy is much different than playing with Brooks and Snell, but the offensive PPP was higher by 0.03 as well. (1.21 to 1.18). There’s plenty of factors that go into this all and it’s nit-picking numbers at its finest, but maybe Gasol and Mirotic could work?

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Joakim Noah

There’s no guarantee that Joakim Noah will bounce back in 2015-16. Noah will turn 31 in February and the past couple years for him have been plagued by knee/foot issues.

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    • But, even still, I refuse to doubt Joakim Noah’s best years are over. Earlier in the summer, when I made projections for a starting five for the Bulls, Joakim Noah was the starting center. It’s no guarantee, but with a strong camp and the ability to provide his defense of old, a Mirotic-Noah starting pairing up front could come to the light.

    Sure, there’s the simple arguments that can be made: “What about Gasol and Mirotic’s familiarity with another?” “If Noah is the Noah from last year, he should be on the bench.”

    Both of those should be taken into consideration, but if Noah is the Noah prior to the knee injury, he needs to be on the floor.

    2013-14 Joakim Noah vs. 2014-15 Pau Gasol:

    Noah – 11.6 ORB%, 24.5 DRB%, 18.2 TRB%, *26.4 AST%(!), 6.6 DWS and a 5.5 DBPM (defensive box plus/minus), the highest of Noah career.

    Gasol – 9.2 ORB%, 27.6 DRB%, 18.6 TRB%, 14.4 AST%, 4.4 DWS and a 2.1 DBPM in 2014-15.

    *Noah was obviously asked to do much more thanks to a lack of help in 2013-14 with injuries, including running the entire offense through him at times.

    Simply put, when Joakim Noah is healthy, no player in the league plays with more energy and passion on both ends than Noah. The deciding factor in the debate may come down to Noah and Gasol’s health. Noah is probably a better fit for this quicker-paced team, as Gasol has shown his body wearing down in a quicker-paced offense in the past from his final days in Los Angeles with the Lakers under Mike D’Antoni. (But, the wild card remains Nikola Mirotic.)

    Overall thoughts:

    There’s cases for both guys to start with Mirotic. I don’t think there’s any question that the starting four for the Bulls this season should be Nikola Mirotic. In this era of the NBA, you can’t play two centers in the frontcourt. Both Gasol and Noah are natural five-men, and as good as they both are when they’re healthy, they shouldn’t be on the floor together.

    Gasol has familiarity with Mirotic and with their EuroBasket experience for Spain, it’s not surprising that Gasol may have the edge over Noah at this junction. Plus, what Joakim Noah are the Bulls getting in 2015-16?

    A Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Mirotic unit is as strong as any starting unit in the Eastern Conference. The final piece to the puzzle is a mystery right now, but the weeks ahead should give us the definite answer.

    (Stats: Basketball-Reference, 82games.com. Links: Chicago Tribune, SB Nation’s Blog a Bull.)

    Next: Winning EuroBasket 2015 was huge for Pau Gasol's confidence entering 2015-16

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