Mohammed: Nikola Mirotic’s “Ceiling is Dirk”

Chicago Bulls veteran center Nazr Mohammed thinks that rookie teammate Nikola Mirotic can be just as good as 13-time NBA All-Star Dirk Nowitzki. The 37-year-old center showered high praise on Mirotic in a recent interview with CSN Chicago. Are Mohammed’s comments merely flattery or is there real substance to what he has said?

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Mohammed has garnered some attention recently from the media after announcing that he plans to play an 18th NBA season.

In the interview mentioned above with CSN Chicago, Mohammed was asked to reflect on his career as well as critique some of his younger teammates. Here is what he had to say about Nikola.

"“His ceiling is Dirk, which would be great for us. I think Niko is just going to be a great NBA player. He does so many things well. He can shoot the ball. He’s a better driver than people give him credit for. He has some good post moves. He’s tough. He’s not going to back down from a fight. Now with this experience, I think he’s going to play better, get better and improve and make a bigger impact next year.”"

In his rookie season in the NBA, Mirotic averaged 10.2 points per game on 40.5 percent from the field. According to ESPN insider John Hollinger, Mirotic was tied for 17th in the entire NBA in player efficiency rating during the 2014-15 season. He finished second in the NBA’s Rookie of the Year voting behind Minnesota Timberwolves swingman Andrew Wiggins and was voted to the 2015 All-NBA Rookie Team.

In the month of March, Mirotic was the best forth quarter scorer in the entire league.

Most 4th quarter points in March:

123 - NIKOLA MIROTIC
94 - LeBron James
83 - Russell Westbrook
79 - Lou Williams
76 - Corey Brewer
— Jeff Mangurten (@JeffGurt) March 24, 2015

Nikola Mirotic and Dirk Nowitzki have been the subjects of speculative comparisons because both of them are sharp-shooting former Euroleague players. Mirotic hails from Montenegro and was a star before coming over to the United States to play for the Bulls last summer. Similarly, Nowitzki is from Germany and played four seasons in German basketball leagues before eventually being drafted ninth overall by the Milwaukee Bucks in 1998.

Apr 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic (44) looks for a rebound against Milwaukee Bucks center John Henson (31) in game five of the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Mirotic was actually drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2011 before his rights were ceded to the Chicago Bulls in a draft night trade involving three teams. He played overseas for three years before the Chicago Bulls paid a $3 million buyout fee to his current team at the time (Real Madrid) in order to bring him overseas to Chicago.

Although Mirotic was a hyped prospect, ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla predicted early on that Mirotic wouldn’t surpass Nowitzki in terms of NBA effectiveness.

"“I think the Bulls are getting a really solid player here. But they’re not getting Dirk Nowitzki, certainly not at this stage of his career.”"

Mirotic has been presented with a fantastic opportunity to prove the naysayers wrong.

This summer, Mirotic has the opportunity to improve by working with a coach that has an offensive philosophy that caters almost completely to his strengths. Whether he ultimately becomes a stretch big man, or a versatile wing player at the small forward position, the three point shot is a key element to his game.

College basketball analyst Randy Sherman predicts that the Bulls group of three-point specialists will make huge strides moving forward under Hoiberg.

"Kelly Scaletta (Author) — I read that 40 percent of Iowa State’s offense comes off three-point attempts, yet still shot 36.2 percent from deep. What does he do to create so many looks?Randy Sherman — Two main ways: His “fist” action uses screen the screener action where a shooter sets a cross screen for a post player and then receives a down screen for a shot. But the main way is spacing around pick-and-rolls. The penetration created by the pick-and-roll allows for kick-outs to open shooters. Hoiberg almost always has a shooter spaced on the weak side from the ball screen.(Off the cuff, I can see Tony Snell, Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic feasting in this kind of system. All three are capable three-point shooters on the catch-and-shoot, and Derrick Rose is great at getting the ball to the weak side shooter on the pick-and-roll.)"

An overused cliche is “rookie mistake”, but this phrase perfectly describes the part of his game that Mirotic needs to improve the most. His on-court instincts and game IQ were lacking last season simply because he was a rookie.

On offense, he tried to do too much at times which led to a high turnover percentage rate of 10.6 turnovers per 100 possessions.

On defense, he took unnecessary gambles such as committing an abundance of reach-in fouls and going for steals at inopportune moments. However, all of these mistakes are easily correctable and should be rectified next season simply because he has a year of experience under his belt and knows what to expect.

Although the effort was there, Mirotic struggled defensively last season. Even if he continues to struggle on this side of the ball, it shouldn’t matter as much because defensive proficiency isn’t the end-all determinant of playing time like it was with Thibodeau.

May 10, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic (44) and Cleveland Cavaliers guard Iman Shumpert (4) battle for the ball in the first half of game four of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

There is no doubt that Mirotic needs to improve, but his accomplishments and stats during his rookie season surpass those of Nowitzki in his rookie season.

Now that Mirotic has played a season in the NBA, the rookie season of both players can be compared on an even playing field. Amazingly, Mirotic’s stats are much better than the former NBA MVP, at least in both players’ rookie seasons. (Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference).

Season	G	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2014-15	82	20.2	3.1	7.6	.405	1.2	3.8	.316	1.9	3.8	.495	.485	0.8	4.2	4.9	1.2	0.7	0.7	1.1	2.1	10.2
Career	82	20.2	3.1	7.6	.405	1.2	3.8	.316	1.9	3.8	.495	.485	0.8	4.2	4.9	1.2	0.7	0.7	1.1	2.1	10.2

Now, take a look at Nowitzki’s stats during his rookie season in the NBA.(Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference).

Season	G	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1998-99	47	20.4	2.9	7.1	.405	0.3	1.4	.206	2.6	5.7	.455	.426	0.9	2.6	3.4	1.0	0.6	0.6	1.6	2.2	8.2

Of course, Nowitzki’s play elevated to the tune of 17.5 points per game on 46 percent from the field in his second season in the NBA. Mirotic has a long way to go, however; the stats indicate that he is heading in the right direction.

Mohammed is onto something with his comments about Mirotic because his teammate showed potential for greatness at a such a young age. While Mohammed’s prediction is a little premature at this stage in his career, it may not be so far-fetched as Mirotic progresses in this league.

Mirotic’s improvement goes along with an important overarching goal of this team: developing the young players. Obviously, Mirotic has a long way to go before he can warrant legitimate comparisons to a player as great as Nowitzki.

However, Mirotic’s career trajectory and skillset mirrors Nowitzki’s in a variety of ways. Mirotic has all the talent in the world; moving forward it’s all about the desire to work hard to improve.

Next: No rehab for Derrick Rose this offseason is big for Bulls

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