Will Pau Gasol Fit in Fred Hoiberg’s Offense?

Fred Hoiberg’s introduction as head coach last Tuesday ushered in a completely new era of Chicago Bulls basketball raising questions regarding whether the existing group of players will fit into his drastically new system. Bulls big man Pau Gasol is one of those players whose style of play may not jive with the system that Hoiberg is going to impose in Chicago.

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Gasol had his career rejuvenated this season with the Bulls. In his 15th NBA season, Gasol averaged 18.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per game and led the NBA in double-doubles during the regular season with a total of 54. In addition, he was selected as a starter in the All-Star game for the first time in his career.

Hoiberg publicly expressed confidence that Gasol would fit into this new offensive system.

"We had a lot of success with that at Iowa State, using our bigs as playmakers in the open floor. And then Pau’s ability to get up and seal in transition or go right into a drag screen and pop with his ability to shoot. And then the bench players, Taj, I’ve always loved his ability to get out, he’s a great defensive player."

However, this statement seems overly optimistic and slightly misguided when comparing Gasol’s skillset with what Hoiberg tries to do offensively. Gasol may be a poor fit in Hoiberg’s offensive system because it devalues the mid-range jumper/back-to-the-basket scoring and utilizes fast-paced up-tempo play.

In his five years at Iowa State, Hoiberg virtually eliminated the mid-range jumper from his offense simply because it is one of the most inefficient shots in basketball.

Jun 2, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; New Chicago Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg (right) speaks during a press conference at Advocate Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

According to college basketball analyst Dylan Burkhardt, only 8.5 percent of shots taken by the Iowa State Cyclones last season were categorized as mid-range jumpers . The Cyclones were ranked 15th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency largely as a result of their reluctance to take this type of shot. In the aforementioned article, Burkhardt explains the real benefit of this system of offense.

"Deemphasizing the mid-range has resulted in a more effective two-point offense. The Cyclones make their two-point shots at a higher rate than every major-conference team other than Kansas, a clear indicator that they are getting good looks. Considering their size disadvantages – there’s no Andrew Wiggins or Joel Embiid in Ames and and the Cyclones rank 325th in effective height – that’s an impressive feat."

In the press conference in which he was introduced as the new head coach of the Chicago Bulls, Hoiberg stated that he will continue to devalue the mid-range jumper. Instead, Hoiberg emphasizes three-point shooting and shots in the paint similar to the style of play that Steve Kerr is running with Golden State.

Unfortunately for Gasol, his effectiveness largely stems from his ability to hit long two-point jumpers at a high percentage. According to basketball reference, 30 percent of his total shots over his career have come from at least ten feet away from the basket. As he has become older, statistics have shown that he is settling for longer jumpers at a dramatically higher percentage. In his previous three seasons, 40 percent of Gasol’s shots have been further than ten feet from the basket.

Despite the mid-range jumper having a reputation as an inefficient shot attempt, Gasol has shot 44.5 percent from this range throughout his career. Last season, Gasol was ranked 24th in the league in mid-range shooting percentage (10-22 feet).

Furthermore, Gasol may be in some trouble in Hoiberg’s system because back-to-the-basket scorers are devalued as well. College basketball analyst Randy Sherman explains.

"Often, Iowa State doesn’t have a player on the low block at all. Hoiberg calls the short corner area two to three feet off the baseline and behind the defense the post player’s “room.” The purpose of the ball screen is to get a player in the paint attacking the defense. With post players “in their room” behind the defense, post defenders have to decide to either help up or sink back. I would say true back to the basket post players would be devalued in Hoiberg’s system."

A systematic post-up isn’t a staple of this offense because a player methodically pounding inside doesn’t jive with Hoiberg’s philosophy of free and up-tempo offense.

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According to NBA.com, a Pau Gasol post-up in some form occurs on 28.4 percent of possessions and he scores on 45 percent of these possessions. Put simply, another one of Gasol’s strengths is devalued in Hoiberg’s system and calls into question whether Pau will fit in with his new head coach.

Mid-range jumpers and post-ups account for a large portion of Gasol’s offensive game. In a system that devalues both shot types, it is easy to see how Gasol could struggle.

So what kind of big men do fit in Hoiberg’s convoluted offensive system? Randy Sherman provides the answer to this question as well.

"I would say true back to the basket post players would be devalued in Hoiberg’s system and springy and rangy baseline athletes would become prioritized."

It would be a stretch to call the 34-year-old Gasol a “springy and rangy baseline athlete(s)”.

Sherman also described Hoiberg’s offensive system as free-flowing uptempo basketball thus emphasizing the importance of athletic big men that can run the floor and keep up with this frantic pace. At this point in his career, Gasol doesn’t fit this prototype simply because of his age.

May 6, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) and Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol (16) in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

However, Gasol excels in another facet of athleticism. An important quality of an athletic big man is the putback, defined by sporting charts’ website as “the player securing a missed shot (with an offensive rebound), then immediately scoring (without dribbling or making a basketball move).” According to NBA.com, Gasol was ranked 10th in the entire NBA in points off of putbacks(187) during the 2014-2015 season.

Gasol’s skillset outside of his sneaky good putback ability doesn’t jive with what Hoiberg is going to try to do with this team offensively next season. There has been widespread speculation regarding the futures of Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah when Pau Gasol may be the worse fit of the three in Hoiberg’s offensive system.

I have long been a proponent of maintaining the core of this group which includes keeping Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah as well as Pau Gasol. If Gasol wants to stay around, then he is going to have to adapt his game to fit the new system. Labeling Gasol by default as a sure-fire returnee for next season is unfair to his big man counterparts Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. All three should stay but none of them should be exempt from criticism.

Next: Wesley Matthews a Target for Bulls?

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