Why Is Chicago Bulls Center Joakim Noah Struggling Offensively in Playoffs?

After averaging 10.4 points per game in the 2013-14 playoffs, Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah has failed to replicate his offensive numbers in the playoffs this season. Advanced offensive statistics seem to confirm that there are several reasons why Noah has regressed so noticeably offensively.

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Statistically, Noah’s scoring numbers have significantly dropped in the playoffs this season when compared to a year ago. In the 2013-2014 playoffs, Noah averaged 10.4 points per game on 51 percent shooting and averaged 3.4 trips to the free throw line per game. It is worth mentioning that during the Bulls 2013-2014 first round playoff series against Washington, Noah was playing on a knee that underwent arthroscopic surgery shortly after the conclusion of that series. This season, the script has been reversed. In the playoffs, Noah is only averaging 5.4 points per game on 44 percent from the field and only takes 1.8 free throw attempts per game. (Stats courtesy of ESPN.com.)

Noah’s role offensively has been diminished with the addition of several high-octane scorers to the roster this season. This diminished role has taken a toll on his confidence and his willingness to be aggressive when he gets opportunities on offense.

For comparison purposes, it is valuable to further analyze an important statistic that measures the overall effectiveness of his offensive game. According to Basketball Reference, Noah’s true shooting percentage (a measure of shooting efficiency that includes free throws, two-pointers and three pointers) has Noah at a playoff career low this season at 39 percent. Previously, his true shooting percentage never fallen below 47 percent.

May 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) defends Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) in the third quarter in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN fantasy basketball writer John Cregan reflected on the importance of true field percentage in evaluating a player’s value in a November 2012 article on ESPN’s website. He also inadvertently confirmed that Noah’s true shooting percentage in the 2014-2015 playoffs is well below the league average.

"I think of True Shooting Percentage as a sort of CliffsNotes of how a player is going to affect my fantasy team in the percentage categories. When I’m drafting a team, I prioritize players who excel in this stat. A .500 TS% is about average, .550 is very good, and anything over .600 is exceptional."

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First and foremost, the addition of an array of highly skilled offensive players has reduced Noah’s importance offensively. Last summer, the Bulls added Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks to the roster. Together, these players averaged almost 40 points per game during the 2014-2015 regular season. In addition, Derrick Rose is finally back, and the emergence of Jimmy Butler as the leading scorer on the team has reduced Noah’s opportunities offensively.

Apr 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) and guard Jimmy Butler (21) talk to each other against the Milwaukee Bucks in game five of the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs at United Center. The Bucks won 94-88. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

According to NBA.com/stats, Noah is averaging 44.1 front-court touches in the playoffs this season. However, only 4.1 of his touches are categorized as “close touches”, which includes possessions where he gets the ball within 12 feet of the basket(excluding drives). This means that Noah only gets the ball in a position to score nine percent of the time. Noah is only scoring 33 percent of the time on drives, and he is only averaging 1.5 drives per game. The low percentage of touches in positions where he is able to score signal that the Bulls aren’t running plays for him nor straining to get him involved offensively. This goes a long way towards explaining his regression offensively in the playoffs this season.

Noah is no longer the focal point of the offense, and this has shot his confidence and contributed to his struggles. During the regular season, Noah’s true shooting percentage of 48 percent placed him at number 315 of the 366 players eligible in this statistic. In the playoffs, Noah’s 39 percent true field-goal percentage sits him at number 135 of 149. Stats courtesy of ESPN.com writer John Hollinger.

The reason Noah’s declining true field goal percentage is indicative of his lack of confidence is that a vast majority of Noah’s shots in the playoffs have been in the paint. In eight playoff games, he has taken a total of 48 shots and 43 of these shots (89.5 percent) have come inside the paint. A vast majority of his shots should be going in because they are coming at a close proximity to the basket. Noah has only pulled up for one shot in the playoffs that was over 13 feet. We haven’t see too much of this in the playoffs this season.

Noah is missing a lot of shots from point-blank range suggesting that his touch around the basket and confidence in his shot aren’t what they used to be. He has admitted in the past that hitting open jump shots helps to elevate his confidence—something he hasn’t been doing this season.

"“I feel pretty confident [in his jumpshot]. I don’t want players to play off me like that. I feel like I worked on it pretty hard with Thibodeau in the off-season, and to me there’s nothing better than making a 15-footer because a lot of people told me my whole life that I wouldn’t be able to shoot it. So it feels great knocking it down.”"

May 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) and Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) position for a rebound in the fourth quarter in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The lack of confidence that stems from a reduced role offensively also has produced a less aggressive Noah. The center is only averaging 1.5 drives per game in the playoffs. The reduction in drives per game and shots per game has also led to less free throw attempts per game. In the 2013-2014 playoffs, Noah averaged 3.4 free throw attempts per game. In the first eight games of the 2014-2015 playoffs, this number is all the way down to 1.8 attempts per game. Obviously, a player that isn’t aggressive is going to have a hard time scoring the ball.

The Bulls need every player to step up offensively if they hope to beat the Cavaliers in this second-round series. Involving Noah more in the offense and giving him touches in places where he can score the ball will increase his confidence and in-turn he will be more aggressive towards the basket and score at a higher clip. An energized, highly productive Noah on the offensive side of the ball will be a difficult thing for the Cleveland Cavaliers to handle.

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