Derrick Rose, Draymond Green and players who transcend stats

Derrick Rose’s game against the Warriors Tuesday night could be summed up by a series of numbers.

30 points, 13 for 33 shooting, a career-high 11 turnovers, no free throw attempts and just one assist.

43 minutes played, the most since a win over the Knicks on March 12, 2012.

Derrick Rose last night: 33 FGA, 11 turnovers, 1 assist and 0 FTA. That's basically everything you don't want from your point guard.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 28, 2015

Just don’t forget about all the numbers. 113-111. 19-game home winning streak snapped. One shot.

Derrick Rose wasn’t one to describe his game in numbers. He preferred words when talking to Sam Smith after the game:

"“Playing like myself,” said Rose. “I want the moments, I want that shot. My teammates gave me the ball to take the shot. Looks good on the resume. I’m not running away from those shots, I’m not turning them down. If anything my teammates are going to give me the ball to take the shot, so that’s a good feeling.”"

The modern NBA is an analytical beast. It is no longer possible to make definitive opinions on players in the league. In what should be a time when advanced metrics make judging the value of player more accurate and definitive, I find myself getting into more arguments than ever. For every stat that shows how good a player is, there is an equally imposing wall of metrics waiting to tear the same guy down. The game has become less about basketball and more about finding some statistic to support your argument.

Baseball was the original sport that started the advanced metric revolution. It took a couple of years to transfer over to the hardwood, and fans are drooling. No game lends itself better to advanced stats than the NBA. The sport’s mass of data that comes from every possession, game and season, the ability to quantify each player’s role on his team, the accuracy of statistics, and the prevalence of data utilized by teams in the league itself all appeal pro-numbers fans to the NBA.

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The statistics are causing more people to show an interest in the league and more fans are smarter because of it. I love the fact that I can talk hoops with people who just three years ago thought that when I was talking about the Pacers I was referring to the test we all had to do in P. E. More than ever someone can use numbers to support an argument because they have gotten so accurate and predictive in telling us about players. But do you know what beats numbers telling us about players? Actually watching players.

Jan 7, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) waits to take the floor against the Utah Jazz at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

In 2015 there is no such thing as just talking NBA with another journalist, only arguing NBA. I will make a statement and if someone disagrees with me, soon a phone or laptop is being shoved in my face and I’m looking at a series of numbers. It’s rare that I’m told I’m wrong and given an argument why, but instead proven wrong by being shown numbers. As long as someone disagrees with me, we are in a Wi-Fi zone, and his or her phone or laptop isn’t dead, I am going to be shown a statistic on some screen proving their argument.

The other day I went out to lunch with a couple of friends of mine. They were, like me, guys, sports journalism majors and big NBA fans. It was the day before the Bulls vs. Warriors game and one of my buddies-not exactly the next Zach Lowe-was telling me Draymond Green is overrated. Of course, knowing Green is the darling of NBA bloggers everywhere and has ubiquitous support on the Internet, I could have made my argument in fewer than seven touches to my iPhone screen. I thought that was too easy. I told my friend I disagreed by saying, “I watch him play. He is a great basketball player and causes that team to win.”

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For an all under-25-year-old conversation, using that as my rationale for why a player was good was the equivalent of if Steve Jobs would have told his programmers to put together a MacBook a certain way because “he had hunch.” My friends looked at me and waited for me to yank out my phone and pull something up. I didn’t want to look at my phone. I was sick of being a mindless search tool. I wanted to use the fact that I watched thousands of hours of NBA as the reason for why a player was good. But in 2015, that isn’t significant enough. It was as if I just spoke Spanish and my friends were waiting for a translator.

Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) goes up for a rebound over Chicago Bulls forward Pau Gasol (16) during the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

The Green argument was adjourned for the rest of the day, and I made it a point that my friends come over that night for the game so they could see what I was talking about when I said, “Draymond Green helps his team win.” We watched using our eyes. No phones, no Twitter, no statistics. I pointed out when Green was talking to some of the Bulls, getting in their skin just enough so they would try to sink a shot in his face normally considered a poor attempt. Or when Green jumped up off their bench and got his fellow teammates and fans in the game after someone hit a big shot. I showed them how Green is the guy huddling the players up before free throws or talking to everyone as they are walking onto the court just after a timeout. I tried to explain how none of what Green did during the game could show up on the stat sheet, but makes a huge difference for his team. They weren’t buying it.

They were more enamored with David Lee, the guy who sits behind Green on the Warriors bench. Lee had 24 points and 9 rebounds. They loved that Lee got 11 points in the third quarter and kept the Warriors in front of the Bulls throughout the third quarter while the starters rested. My plan had backfired and my friends were more sure of themselves that Green was overrated and it actually should be Lee starting at power forward. They pointed out to me how Green couldn’t handle guarding the Bulls 7-footers (who both had 18 points) and Lee-who has two inches on Green- should have been the one on the floor against the Bulls’ big men.

I still resisted. You watch basketball, Nick. You know Steve Kerr is one the smartest coaches in the league and the Warriors have the best record in the NBA with Green as the starting power forward. By the time the game hit the 8:56 mark in the fourth and Lee had just converted on another and-1 to give him 24 on the night and the Warriors and 11-point lead, I started to falter in my Green argument. Green had just four points.

At the 7:09 mark Green came in for Justin Holiday. The Warriors were up by five and, despite his poor game thus far, wanted to ride out Green and some other starters to the finish. My friends snickered behind me at Kerr’s decision to put in an ice-cold Green. Green scored a couple of buckets, but the Bulls overpowered the Warriors down low and were now leading by two with 12 seconds left. The Warriors had one chance to tie or win the game.

We watched Green score the biggest bucket of the game for the Warriors. I noted that he might be the only guy in the league 6’ 8” that could out muscle someone 7’ 0” for a rebound and an overtime-forcing tip-in, and the fact that we watched it happen shows how good he really is. Despite the score, my friends still thought David Lee had a better game and should actually be the one in the Warriors’ starting lineup. I should have known not even a game-tying tip-in wouldn’t have persuaded them towards Green. I didn’t care. I am just glad that they SAW what Draymond Green does on a basketball court to make his team win. I knew that they wouldn’t have fully appreciated what Green did for the Warriors that night even if they had read everything about that game and looked up the most advanced of metrics.

There is still hope for subjective viewership of a basketball game.

Jan 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) goes up for a basket during the first quarter against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Now that Kobe Bryant is done for the season, Derrick Rose is this year’s “Guy Stat Lovers Love to Bash”. Being that I am the residential Bulls fan, my peers get no greater pleasure than coming up to me and proclaiming how poorly Rose is statistically. I love to hear about how Rose is one of four players ever to be taking over 11 field goals and 5 3-pointers per game and shooting so poorly from both of them. They tell me that his free throw attempts per-game are a career low, which means his athleticism is gone following the knee surgeries, and that his increased 3-pointers attempts are a good thing except for the fact he shoots so poor from three that it is actually a detriment for the team. I hear all-about how bad Tom Thibodeau extensive minutes are for Rose and the other Bulls players.

All I can do is agree with them. The statistics are a powerful way to measure players in 2015 and everything my friends tell me are correct. My only rebuttal is, “I know his stats are bad now, but give him time to come back and they will get better.” I only make the defense that Rose’s stats will get better. I don’t even care about whether Rose himself will get to another level, but only if his number on a computer screen will increase so that I can defend Derrick Rose statistically. For a slew of journalists that always gravitated towards English and away from Math in school, our subject matter is very arithmetic.