Chicago Bulls Dominant When Starters Healthy

As December comes upon us, the Chicago Bulls are already almost 1/4 done with their season. They have accumulated an 11-7 record despite the many obstacles (in the form of injuries mostly) that they have been dealt with so far this year. While the Bulls have clearly established themselves as one of the handful of truly elite teams in this league, they haven’t come close to reaching their ceiling of potential.

Dec 2, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) reaches from the ball around Dallas Mavericks guard Jameer Nelson (14) during the first quarter at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

We have barely seen the Bull’s true potential this season because the Bull’s starters (Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Gasol, Noah) have only played 6 out of 17 games together. A testament to how good this team could be when everybody is healthy and firing on all cylinders is the fact that in these 5 games where the starters all played together, the Bulls enjoy a 5-1 record.

From my perspective, the Bull’s 11-7 record out of the gate should turn heads around the league because this team hasn’t come close to maximizing their potential yet this season. The play is sloppy, there are too many turnovers, not as many assists as usual and too much isolation on offense. When the Bulls figure out these problems, and they will undoubtedly right the ship once the starters string together multiple starts where everybody is playing and healthy together, the Bulls are going to be very hard to beat.

Many of the Bulls problems this season can be attributed to their lack of continuity because the starters just haven’t had very many chances to all play together as one cohesive unit.

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One of the most highly covered stories this season is the Bull’s surprising pedestrian-level defense. Tom Thibodeau, a defensive-minded coach, has consistently produced teams ranked among the top 5 in opponent points per game during his tenure with the Chicago Bulls. The coach is psychotically obsessed with his convoluted defensive schemes and has got his players to fully buy into his defensive system. That is why is it so out of character for this Bull’s team to be ranked tied 10th in the league giving up 98.3 points per game to opponents. The last four seasons has landed the Bulls in the top three in the NBA in this category and they haven’t surrendered more than 93 points per game during this stretch. Opponents field goal percentage is up to 44% this season, also uncharacteristically high, although not to the same degree as the points per game figure. According to ESPN advanced stats, the Bull’s rank 9th in defensive efficiency, a theoretical measure of how many points a team would give up per 100 possessions, with a score of 101.3. Once again, this is significantly higher than their rating for any of the last four past seasons. There is no way around it, the Bulls aren’t playing defense at the same level that they have in the past. This stems from their lack of continuity.

February 9, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center Chris Kaman (9) moves to the basket against the defense of Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah (13) and power forward Taj Gibson (22) during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

This season there are a lot of mistakes being made on defense, and many of them are communication errors. Players aren’t fighting through screens or not switching which leads to easy buckets. There are breakdowns on drives to the basket, as a lack of communication leads to an easy layup. The player’s lack that uncanny ability to know what their teammates are going to do before they do it because they haven’t played with each other enough. Discontinuity is mainly marketed as being an offensive problem, but it definitely carries over to the defensive side of the ball. I also think that there is a slight lack of effort issue sometimes out there, because the Bulls can seemingly amp up the defense on a whim in most cases. But the mental mistakes are definitely there to a higher degree, and that is a direct byproduct to the fact that Bull’s starters (and for that matter the second unit players too—there has been injuries there as well) haven’t played together enough.

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The current assist total of 21.6 per game is also at a four year low. This includes the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 season in which Rose played a significant majority of the regular season. I say this because Rose has been criticized for being a ball hog in the past, and if I said the current season assist average was lower than the last couple years, people would say that this was the result of Rose being in the lineup and hogging the ball. Anyway, this stat that I just provided is another discontinuity issue. Gasol has recorded the lowest assists per game total of his career, Noah assists average is lower than last year (which is expected because he had a more integral part of the offense the last couple seasons). Rose is averaging the second lowest assist average of his career this season (the lowest coming in the 10 games before he tore his meniscus, does that even count?). Dunleavy, too, is averaging less assists per game than last season.

The ball isn’t moving like it is supposed to be. There is too much isolation, more so than I have ever seen on a Bull’s team. There is an obvious reason for this: Gasol is a new addition that has always been a prolific scorer when isolated in the post and Jimmy Butler has emerged as a fantastic player capable of creating his own shot. Still, the ball needs to move better, and this will only happen when the starters are able to play with each other more often.

Nov 17, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Chicago Bulls guard Jimmy Butler (left) celebrates with guard Mike Dunleavy (34) during the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. The Chicago Bulls defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 105-89. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulls have spent the better part of the last 4 years learning how to play without their MVP point guard Derrick Rose. Many of the issues mentioned above stem from the players learning how to play with Derrick Rose again. The Bulls are a different team when he is on the floor, and all the starters must acclimate to his unique style of play and relearn his tendencies so that they can all be on the same page. Despite his more complacent playing style this season, Derrick Rose is averaging the second lowest assist average of his career, and this has to be partly attributed to the rusty chemistry between himself and his teammates right now. His assist totals this season are still significantly lower than his 2010-2011 totals when adjusted to a per 36 minutes total. Rose is a more willing passer these days, yet his assists numbers this season are significantly lower than seasons past when he was a prolific shoot first scorer. This phenomenon is directly caused by chemistry issues from the starters only playing 6 games together this season thus far.

Nov 30, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose (1) shoots the ball around Brooklyn Nets center Brook Lopez (11) during the second quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Bulls have shown a lot of potential already during this young season. But, due to players being in and out of the lineup with an array of injuries, they haven’t fully shown their full potential for greatness thus far. As the starting lineup becomes more concrete and these players become more comfortable playing with each other, expect the deficiencies mentioned above to be ironed out.