The Chicago Bulls have plenty of important decisions to make this offseason, not the least of which is what to do with their own free agents.
The Bulls have four key guys who could walk this summer in DeMar DeRozan, Patrick Williams, Andre Drummond and Torrey Craig, and with three of them, Chicago won’t have much to say about it.
Here are the chances each of them comes back, starting with the most unlikely and working up.
Chances of each Bulls free agent returning next season
Torrey Craig (player option $2.8 million): 10 percent
Craig can opt out of the final year of his deal and hit free agency. He has to make his decision by June 29th and is likely waiting to size up his options. At 33-years-old, Craig may look for a better situation for minutes and/or a run at a title, or he could opt out in search of one last multi-year deal. Craig can likely get more from some other team and the Bulls may let him.
Andre Drummond (unrestricted free agent): 25 percent
Drummond had a good year for the Bulls, so there may be some interest in bringing him back, but it’s going to cost more than $3.3 million.
Drummond established himself as one of the better backup centers in the league, and while his next contract won’t break the bank, he is still only 30 and can likely find a more lucrative long-term deal from someone.
The Bulls need depth at center, and I’m sure they’d love to bring Drummond back at the right price, but with other teams out there with cap space and needs of their own, Drummond may find a better deal than the one the Bulls are willing to offer.
Patrick Williams (restricted free agent): 55 percent
This might be the toughest one on the list, as they can’t overpay to keep Williams, but don’t want to lose a 22-year-old wing player with upside for nothing. The Bulls will have to extend the qualifying offer ($13 million) to make Williams a restricted free agent, and even that is a risk, as he might just accept it.
There are also teams with cap space like the Pistons who might try to pry Williams away by making him an offer the Bulls don’t want to match. This one is in Chicago’s control, as they can match any offer, but how high do they really want to go for a guy who has yet to live up to his potential? A deal in the 4 years/$50 million range might be the minimum it will take for him to stay in Chicago.
DeMar DeRozan (unrestricted free agent): 90 percent
The Bulls are in a tough situation here, as DeRozan is the heart of the team, their best player and they can’t let him walk for nothing.
But he’s also soon to be 35 years old, so Chicago can’t go crazy with the years in whatever contract they offer him.
DeRozan has expressed interest in staying and that seems to be mutual, so I expect them to work out a deal. However, if DeRozan wanted to go chase a ring with a team like Philly, they have cap space and could come sniffing around if they strike out on other targets.
Unless the Bulls pull off an unlikely sign-and-trade, DeRozan will probably be in Chicago next season.