After five seasons and 276 games, it goes without saying Patrick Williams should no longer be penciled in as a starter for the Chicago Bulls. Williams' struggles have been well-documented since the Bulls selected him fourth overall in 2020.
Chicago took a calculated risk selecting Williams in the top four. The Florida State product had only averaged 9.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game for the Seminoles. Moreover, he didn't make one start in his freshman season. Suiting up for a veteran-laden Florida State squad, Williams averaged merely 22.5 minutes per game.
Then-19-year-old Williams was extremely unpolished. For what it's worth, he would have been selected as an 18-year-old and played summer league at 18 if not for the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite Williams being a developmental prospect, the Bulls felt his athletic 6-foot-7 frame was immediately translatable to the NBA. And it was.
Patrick Williams has gone from intriguing to uninspiring
Williams averaged 9.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game as a rookie. Perhaps most surprisingly, he started in all 71 games for the Bulls. Williams also shot 48.3 percent from the field and 39.1 percent from beyond the arc en route to earning NBA All-Rookie Team honors.
Unfortunately, we all know how the story unfolds following a promising start to his NBA career. Williams missed a chunk of his sophomore season, only appearing in 17 games. His third season was similar to his first, except that both his points and three-point attempts increased. Then came his fourth season. Williams was injured once again, appearing in just 43 games. His point production and efficiency dipped, yet he was still awarded an exorbitant $90 million contract in the offseason.
Williams' production took a nosedive following the signing of the five-year contract. He averaged 11.2 points in November and 11.0 in December, before struggling immensely in January. Williams averaged 8.4 points while shooting 34.8 percent from the floor, ultimately being benched by Billy Donovan on January 27. He never returned to the starting lineup in a full-time capacity, making only one more start before the season's conclusion.
There was no reason for Williams to start last season, especially after the Bulls dropped a slew of games in January and February. The 23-year-old has been given ample time to prove his worth, yet he's fallen well short of expectations. As frustrating as it is, that's okay. The Bulls have, in effect, moved on by transitioning Williams to a bench role.
A fresh(ish) start could do wonders for Williams, who has often struggled to assert himself as a starter. At least, that's what one would expect.
Williams hasn't proven himself in a reserve role
Nonetheless, Williams has performed worse in a reserve role throughout his five-year tenure with the Bulls. In his third season, the 6-foot-7 forward came off the bench 17 times. He averaged fewer points, rebounds, and assists despite playing only 4.3 fewer minutes off the pine. Yet, his plus/minus was much better as a reserve. He recorded a plus-8.7 off the bench as opposed to a minus-5.6 in 65 games as a starter.
A year later, Williams started 30 games and came off the bench in 13. As a starter, he averaged 11.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 29.5 minutes per game. As a reserve, Williams totaled 7.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 22.3 minutes per game. Similar to a year prior, his plus/minus was considerably better as a reserve (plus-6.9) than as a starter (minus-3.1).
This past season, Williams came off the bench more than ever before. The 23-year-old started 36 contests and was utilized as a reserve in 27. Not only did his points, rebounds, and assists decline, but his three-point efficiency fell off a cliff in a bench role. Williams shot merely 30.5 percent from three as a reserve. And, as the story goes, his plus/minus was noticeably better as a reserve (plus-0.5 versus minus-9.0).
It's rather obvious that Williams should be coming off the bench from here on out. Chicago has 20-year-old Matas Buzelis to prioritize, and traded for a defensive dynamo in Isaac Okoro. Moreover, Kevin Huerter is also an option if Donovan and Co. prefer three-point marksmanship.
However, it's safe to assume Williams would be more impactful off the bench—either playing more assertively or scoring at a greater efficiency. Neither of the expectations mentioned above has been validated. Williams hasn't stood out playing alongside and against weaker competition.
On the flip side, the Bulls have been significantly better with Williams in a reserve role. Only once in five seasons has the 23-year-old wing been a positive difference-maker. Every other season, the Bulls have been at least 6.3 points per 100 possessions better with Williams off the court.