The Chicago Bulls haven't been the best team on the court this season—but, at the very least, there's been some real signs of life where it counts.
Caleb Wilson has been excellent so far, averaging 21.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting 43.2% from the floor. Both Jalen Smith and Norman Powell are establishing themselves as real trade candidates, and Noa Essengue has worked his way into a rotational role after missing essentially his entire rookie season with an injury.
But this season is about charting a path forward for this organization, and the first major consideration that comes with that beyond this season is the extension-eligibility of Matas Buzelis ahead of the fourth year of his rookie deal. Given the areas he still has to grow in his game, whether Buzelis was worth extending ahead of his fourth season was always going to be a polarizing topic—and the actual number of the extension was going to be even more controversial than that.
If Buzelis was going to earn anywhere near top dollar, though, he was going to need to show immediate signs of development in terms of his on-ball dominance and ability to help space the floor and fit next to Wilson. He's shown small spurts of that so far this season, but on the whole, his production has been highly disappointing.
And the longer this goes on, the farther away we'll be from any sort of secure future for Buzelis in Chicago.
The Bulls certainly don't need to act urgently on Matas Buzelis—but there needs to be some real consideration here
If anything's become clear for Chicago through the first few games of this season, it's that Wilson is the future of this team. The Bulls have struggled defensively, of course, but Wilson has shown more than expected on both ends of the court, consistently remaining active as a downhill scorer, a perimeter shooter, a rebounder, and a solid team defender.
Any hope this team has, currently, of this rebuild succeeding involves Wilson realizing his star potential—and everything for the Bulls should be done in light of that fact.
If Buzelis is going to fit next to Wilson long-term, he's absolutely going to need to produce at a more consistent rate, hitting his 3-point shots and learning to work his downhill touches in around Wilson's. Through seven games, the early returns have looked rough. Buzelis is averaging just 13 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 29% from beyond the arc. He has three single-digit scoring performances in that span, most recently putting up just four points against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Perhaps this is simply an adjustment period for him. Wilson, Powell, and Josh Giddey are commanding the bulk of the touches for Chicago currently, and Buzelis will need time to re-orient his game in that light. But he doesn't provide consistent enough defense or on-ball impact to fully account for the deficits he's showed in his game to this point in his career. This level of passiveness is unprecedented, sure, but the onus is on him to rectify that before the end of the season.
In a vacuum, Buzelis' value on his next deal based on his trajectory and previous performance would likely be somewhere in the $30 million annual range, perhaps over five years. That would be north of what the Oklahoma City Thunder just paid for Cason Wallace, but well below what the Charlotte Hornets guaranteed Brandon Miller, who they view as the star of their future after the departure of LaMelo Ball via trade this offseason.
Even if he didn't take the leap toward stardom this season, there's a real chance Bryson Graham would've been willing to proffer that sort of deal just based on potential alone. But Buzelis is struggling heavily to fit into the transition-based offense that Tiago Splitter is attempting to institute, and the longer those sorts of struggles go on, the less certain that type of deal seems for Buzelis.
We're still a long way from calling for a Buzelis trade (although that should likely come this offseason if it's going to be the front office's intention). But we are in a place to start thinking about the future of this roster, and the onus is upon Buzelis to prove he's worthy of a place there, especially on an annual value coming anywhere close to $30 million.
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