Before every NBA season, the league’s general managers take part in an annual survey that covers everything from who will win the Finals to which teams made the best offseason moves, and even which team is the most fun to watch.
The survey doesn’t just focus on teams. It also dives into player-specific questions, like who will win MVP or who’s the best at each position. Some questions, like “Which player is most likely to have a breakout season in 2025–26?" are bound to spark debate.
Last season, the GMs tabbed the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams as the player most likely to break out—and they were right. Williams earned both All-Star and All-NBA honors, averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.6 steals per game while helping lead Oklahoma City to an NBA championship.
NBA GMs’ breakout picks highlight surprising names
This year, the Houston Rockets’ versatile wing Amen Thompson led the way with 30 percent of the vote for “most likely to break out.” It’s an understandable pick as Thompson already flashed star potential last season and will shoulder even more playmaking duties with Fred VanVleet out for the year.
The Charlotte Hornets’ Brandon Miller, Detroit Pistons’ Ausar Thompson, San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama, and Orlando Magic’s Franz Wagner also earned a solid share of votes, each pulling in at least seven percent from the GMs.
The survey also listed players who received only minimal votes, featuring a few surprising names—including former Rockets guard Jalen Green and the New Orleans Pelicans’ Zion Williamson. Among the other vote-getters, just two were sophomores: Reed Sheppard and Alex Sarr.
Naturally, one notable omission that comes to mind is the Chicago Bulls’ swingman Matas Buzelis. The former 11th overall pick has all the tools to be a breakout star. After a slow start, he found his stride in the second half of last season, averaging 13.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game after the All-Star break. Still, his overall numbers were modest: 8.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assists across 80 appearances.
NBA GMs overlooked Buzelis as an obvious breakout candidate
Buzelis still has plenty of room to grow, unlike players such as Green and Williamson. He’s a surefire starter for an up-and-coming Bulls team and has already shown noticeable improvement early in the preseason, posting 19 points, eight rebounds, and one block against the Cleveland Cavaliers on October 7.
Sure, pump the brakes, it’s only preseason, but his rapid improvement shouldn’t be a surprise. Buzelis was widely projected as a top-three, and even the potential first-overall, pick in the 2024 NBA Draft before bypassing college to join the now-defunct G-League Ignite. As a result, his stock fell, and the Bulls selected him with the 11th overall pick.
The talent was always there. He’s a 6-foot-10 wing with the dexterity of a guard, no joke. Buzelis is equally comfortable spotting up from three as he is putting the ball on the deck and attacking the basket, finishing with a surprisingly creative array of moves for his size. On top of that, he’s a quality defender who could very well average over 2.0 combined steals and blocks per game.
Buzelis possesses all the tools to break out and, importantly, has been put in a position to succeed as the starting power forward in the Bulls’ player-friendly offense. Yet, the NBA GMs largely overlooked him. Though third-year players are typically favored to break out, at least according to GMs, Buzelis receiving no votes is notable.NBA GMs snub Chicago’s Matas Buzelis in annual survey, despite his breakout potential and strong preseason showing.