Josh Giddey last 10 games: Stats, stock, & betting trends

The Chicago Bulls are off to an uneven start. At times, the Bulls appear to boast one of the more explosive offenses in the league, capable of beating anyone, playing at a frenetic pace, and dropping 20-plus triples on any given night. On other occasions, Chicago's porous defense is too much to overcome, allowing 135 points to inferior opponents.

Despite Chicago's turbulent start to the season, its best players have been wholly consistent. Zach LaVine is back to All-Star form after an injured-riddled 2023-24 campaign. Nikola Vucevic is shooting the lights out, drilling 46.5 percent of his looks from beyond the arc. Coby White is building off his breakout season a year ago, upping his point totals and shooting splits this time around. However, not every Bulls player has experienced the same torrid start.

Josh Giddey, whom Chicago acquired in the offseason for All-Defensive player Alex Caruso, started out the gate hot before struggling as the Bulls season wore on. Over the Bulls' 3-2 start, Giddey averaged 15.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists while drilling 58.8 percent of his three-pointers. The former Oklahoma City Thunder point guard's last ten games have been nowhere near as impressive.

Overview of Giddey's last 10 games

Giddey is averaging 10.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in 26.3 minutes per game over his last ten appearances. The 6-foot-8 guard's efficiency metrics have dipped considerably. Giddey is shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from downtown. The Aussie has converted on just 11 of his 38 attempts from beyond the arc.

Giddey has reached double-digits in the scoring column only five times in this span. After shooting the ball well to begin the season, Giddey has seen his field goal percentage above 50.0 percent three times over the Bulls' previous 10.

What's most troubling is Giddey's plus/minus over Chicago's last 10 contests. He ranks the worst amongst all starters at minus-7.9—more than a point worse than the next lowest mark. Giddey is down to a minus-7.1 plus/minus on the season, a career-worst. If the Chicago guard continued at this rate, it'd be a worse plus/minus than his 19-year-old season playing for a 24-win Thunder squad.

Key trends from Giddey's last 10 games

Giddey's last 10 performances have paled in comparison to his first six. Initially, the former sixth-overall pick looked like a home run acquisition. Giddey has always been lauded for his sky-high potential but lagged behind in shooting and defending. His shooting appeared to be coming around to begin the season before falling off a cliff as of late.

Efficiency Trends

His shooting has been even worse over Chicago's last five games. Giddey has connected on only five of 22 attempts, equating to a 22.7 conversion rate. While five games is too small a sample, it's worth noting Giddey's more recent struggles.

Despite his poor shooting numbers from the floor and behind the arc, he's been consistent from the charity stripe. Giddey is shooting 83.3 percent from the line over his last 10 games. He's knocked down 15 of 18 free throw attempts. Above-average numbers from the line typically reflect quality shooting percentages. Thus, there's reason to believe the 22-year-old could get back on track sooner rather than later.

Betting Trends

As a result of Giddey's cold streak, his projected point totals have dropped from 15.5 to 11.5 over two weeks. The Australian guard has only bested his point total once, scoring 18 in a loss against the Cleveland Cavaliers, once over the past 10 games. Oddsmakers are well aware of this trend, even lowering Giddey's over/under to 10.5 in last Sunday's affair against the Houston Rockets.

Aside from scoring, the 22-year-old has continued to contribute passing and rebounding. Giddey's assist line has altered between 5.5 and 6.5 over the last 10 contests. He's hit the over in half of those games. Whenever Giddey's over/under has dropped to 5.5, he's almost guaranteed to hit—doing so four out of five times.

Giddey's rebounding totals have been more challenging to predict in recent weeks. After a solid start to the season, the 6-foot-8 guard's rebounding totals are all over the place. He's hit the over on only three occasions over Chicago's previous 10 games. The oddsmakers have adjusted Giddey's over/under, going from 6.5 to 5.5 since the Bulls took on the Houston Rockets.

Future Predictions

Giddey isn't an easy player to predict. It's well understood his rebound and assists totals will remain impressive. He's averaged 7.2 boards and 5.8 assists for his career. However, his scoring totals are what causes headaches. After a strong sophomore campaign in which he averaged 16.6 points per game, Giddey's average dipped to 12.3 a year later and is now at a new low of 11.8.

Furthermore, Giddey has recently lost some playing time to key reserve Ayo Dosunmu. Although Dosunmu has struggled this season, he's performed better lately, averaging 13.0 points and connecting on 47.5 percent of his field goals over Chicago's last 10 games. Despite Ayo's improvement, his plus/minus is minus-9.3, far worse than Giddey's mark. (Although it must be mentioned that Dosunmu shares the court more with the Bulls' reserves than does Giddey).

If Giddey's play continues to decline, expect more Dosunmu. However, an injury to starting forward Patrick Williams will likely keep Giddey in the starting lineup, and Dosunmu coming off the bench, leading the reserves. Nonetheless, seeing Giddey consistently knock down more three-pointers will aid in returning the strong belief to his solid start to the season.