Since arriving in Chicago via trade in the 2024 NBA offseason, Bulls guard Josh Giddey has proven to be a polarizing figure in general Bulls fan conversations.
Giddey’s Bulls tenure has struck a fierce dividing line of strident supporters and resolute critics. With the arrival of a new Bulls front office regime, reasonable questions are growing about Giddey’s long-term fit in a rebuilding Bulls franchise.
What is a common refrain in Giddey discourse, regardless of a Bulls fan’s opinion on him, is a reference to Giddey’s statistics, particularly his raw counting stats (ex. points, rebounds, or assists).
Whether you are pro-Giddey or anti-Giddey, discussing the Australian guard’s box score should be paired with a basic level of modern NBA basketball context.
The triple-double is an obsolete NBA statistic
According to Basketball Reference, the NBA officially began recording triple-doubles as a statistic and attributes this statistical evolution to then-Los Angeles Lakers rookie and Naismith Basketball Hall-of-Fame inductee Earvin “Magic” Johnson.
There were no impact metrics available in the 1979-80 NBA season, such as Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), Real Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM), or Daily Plus-Minus (DPM) that quantified individual player impact on NBA team performance.
In the 1980’s, if an NBA player had the ability to log double figures in three statistical categories, clearly that player was an elite NBA player. The NBA has evolved significantly over the past 46 years, and Josh Giddey’s standing in the NBA should be judged in a modern statistical context.
If you must banter about Giddey’s box score
Josh Giddey, statistically speaking, is a good NBA basketball player. That is what Giddey’s basic per-game averages tell you when reading his NBA box score statistics. Advanced impact metrics may tell a different story, but those numbers venture outside the box score and into a deeper statistical theory conversation. Let’s keep things simple.
Bulls fans should expect Josh Giddey to collect double-digit counting stats; he’s proven this as his core NBA talent. However, raw counting stats lack the context that should inform a Bulls fan’s judgment of how good Josh Giddey’s stats are relative to overall team performance.
Counting stats tell you little about Giddey’s defensive abilities, or how Giddey gets his points, rebounds, and assists, or what it means to the Bulls’ team success or failure.
If you are inclined to argue for or against Josh Giddey, consider factoring in an all-in-one box score metric known as Box Plus-Minus (BPM). The metric is freely available on Basketball Reference and has an easy-to-interpret scale to contextualize what the metric means in the context of the player’s individual skills, relative to overall team performance.
The metric has limitations, just like all statistics do. However, BPM has a clear advantage over counting stats when it comes to discussing Josh Giddey. BPM makes it clear that Giddey is a good starting NBA guard and nothing more. Not a bad thing, and perhaps also not something that merits a long-term Bulls roster commitment.
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