It's been a while since the Chicago Bulls hit on a draft pick. Patrick Williams has yet to live up to his vast potential after being selected fourth overall in 2020. Ayo Dosunmu was a second-round steal in 2021. He's been one of the most consistent Bulls in recent years. Although it does appear Dosunmu has reached his peak at 25 years old.
Chicago selected two high-risk, high-reward prospects in the following three seasons. Dalen Terry, the Bulls' choice in 2022, hasn't made much of an impact at all. His time to make an impression is likely running out. Despite being a second-rounder without much college experience, Julian Phillips has proven to be a rotational piece. Nonetheless, the 21-year-old forward still has much room to grow.
Lastly, Matas Buzelis began his career slowly, after being the 11th overall selection in 2024. He started the season as an end-of-the-rotation player, not earning a regular role until December. However, Buzelis' role was all but concrete. The 6-foot-10 wing saw several DNP-CDs and routinely saw the floor for fewer than 20 minutes through January.
Buzelis' true breakthrough came when Head Coach Billy Donovan inserted him in the starting lineup in early February following the decision to bench Williams and the Zach LaVine trade. Buzelis' minutes increased drastically, as did his impact. His points per game doubled from January to February and his assists skyrocketed from 0.2 to 1.9.
The prized rookie has been especially impactful as of late, averaging 20.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 56.0 percent from beyond the arc over his last four appearances. Over this stretch, the Bulls are 3-1, averaging 128.3 points per contest.
2 flaws Matas Buzelis must fix to reach his ceiling
However, the "as of late" is noteworthy. Buzelis is a work in progress. He's improved every month as he continues to find his groove in the NBA. While he's shown flashes, there's ample room for Buzelis to improve. The two most compelling aspects of his growing game are his shooting and physicality. Both areas will be magnified as he progresses.
Mechanical/stiff jumper
First, Buzelis' shooting has come and gone throughout the season, which isn't atypical for most rookies. The former G-League Ignite star has shot above 36 from three-point range in three months and below 36 percent in two (and five games in October). Buzelis shot merely 31.4 percent from beyond the arc in his first full month as a starter. However, he's shot much better in March—36.1 percent.
Despite the month-to-month increase in three-point percentage, his field goal percentage has recently taken a hit. He's converted 46.7 percent of his field goals in March, compared to 50.0 in February.
The most concerning part of Buzelis' jumper is its lack of fluidity. He's quite mechanical with his jump shot. Thus, he relies on a bevy of catch-and-shoot triples and strays away from the mid-range. 44.3 percent of his field goal attempts are spot-up triples, compared to 6.6 percent pull-up twos and threes. It's either a standstill three, a drive, or a cut for Buzelis in the halfcourt.
There's nothing wrong with relying on spot-up jumpers. Most NBA players prefer to shoot off the catch; it's much easier. Nevertheless, if Buzelis and the Bulls want to ensure he reaches his full potential, an emphasis will surely be placed on off-the-bounce scoring and fluid shotmaking.
Buzelis has demonstrated he's capable and comfortable with attacking closeouts. His long, gliding gait and advanced dribble moves (for being 6-foot-10) make Buzelis a terror for an individual defender. Still, there's reason for defenders to be wary of Buzelis' spot-up marksmanship. He's shooting 33.3 percent on wide-open (at least six feet of space). What happens when a defender doesn't fully commit to closing out on the rookie?
That's a question that must be answered more consistently. Furthermore, the increased fluidity of his shooting motion will eventually aid in his decision-making and overall scoring ability. Once he's more comfortable shooting on the move and dribbling into a jumper, Buzelis' immense offensive potential will feel more attainable.
Lack of strength/slim frame
Statistics paint Buzelis as an impactful defender. He leads the Bulls in blocks per game (0.8) and ranks in the top five in defensive win shares. Moreover, he's been impressive when deterring shots. Buzelis' opponent's field goal percentage within six feet decreases by 7.5 percentage points when he's the primary defender.
The lanky forward is stifling and an apt deterrent for his size. Although his steal and deflection numbers aren't worth mentioning, his help-side defense is his calling card. Yet, at 6-foot-10, Buzelis will be paired up with opposing power forwards and, at times, centers. He's defended forwards 53.5 percent of the time while matching up with centers for 9.7 percent.
As his NBA career progresses, bulking up will be of the essence. Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon, of the Game Theory Podcast mentioned his slim frame and how he's been routinely beaten in one-on-one situations, even by smaller players such as Austin Reaves.
Sure, Buzelis has the requisite length—he's a plus-athlete close to 7 feet tall. Yet his defensive potential lies in his versatility. Buzelis hasn't done it often, but he's been cooked by opposing centers to the tune of a 60.3 field-goal conversion rate. For reference, centers shoot 60.9 percent against guard and notoriously subpar defender Josh Giddey.
Buzelis hasn't defended centers often, nor will he. He's locked into the power-forward slot. But for the Bulls to feel confident in Buzelis as a big, it'll be expected of him to match up against bigger, more physical players, such as his Central Division counterparts, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pascal Siakam. The latter has shot 63.6 percent and scored 16 points when defended by Buzelis.
The rookie's physicality is coming along—that's expected. After suiting up for the now-defunct G-League Ignite for a season, his athleticism was obvious, but his skinny frame and short wingspan were drawbacks. Luckily, with time, Buzelis can alleviate the first concern. As he ages, it'll be easier for Buzelis to add weight, which will improve his isolation defense.