For the past few years, being a Chicago Bulls fan has felt like watching the same season of your favorite show on repeat. It starts with just enough promise to get your hopes up, the team then hovers around .500 for the majority of the season, then gets eliminated in the Play-In Tournament.
Then, in the offseason, the front office drafts a promising yet raw prospect, adds a few new faces through free agency or trade, promises to focus on a new direction, and rolls out a slightly tweaked roster that ultimately lands right back as the 9th or 10th seed in the East.
It is a cycle the fan base is desperate to escape. Yet according to a recent NBA season simulation, the 2025–26 campaign might be the most stereotypical Bulls season yet, only this time with a surprising twist.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton recently ran his statistically-based simulation of the entire season, using advanced projections to model every game, result, and playoff scenario. The outcome for Chicago is somehow both frustratingly familiar and unexpectedly shocking.
A familiar regular season
Let’s start with the big picture. ESPN projects the Bulls to finish 41–41, the perfect representation of the franchise’s almost intentional mediocrity. Exactly .500, stuck between competitive and unable to contend once again.
How they get there makes it even more painful. The Bulls are projected to start the season in disastrous fashion, failing to qualify for the knockout stage of the NBA Cup In-Season Tournament, and owning a miserable 7-18 record as Christmas arrives.
But when panic sets in and the national media once again calls for a complete teardown, Chicago slowly starts to pull it together. By the time the All-Star break reaches, they have fought back to 26–29... still below average but showing signs of life.
That slow climb then carries into the early spring. With two weeks left in the regular season, the Bulls are 38–37 and back in the mix for a playoff spot, finally getting out of the early-season hole they dug themselves into.
The surprising twist
The season then ends the only way this team knows how, with a perfectly even 41–41 record, placing them 9th overall in the East and back in the Play-In Tournament once again.
Here is where things get interesting, though. The simulation actually has the Bulls winning both Play-In games, knocking off the Boston Celtics and the overly familiar Miami Heat to claim the 8th seed in the playoffs.
Their reward is a brutal first-round matchup with the top-seeded Orlando Magic. Chicago’s playoff run does not last long, as the Magic take the series in five games and end the Bulls’ season with a gentleman’s sweep.
Different year, same story
If this simulation were to play out in actuality, how might Bulls fans react?
While the initial reaction might be excitement after finally escaping the Play-In curse and securing a playoff spot, that feeling would likely fade fast. Ultimately, it would just be another season stuck in the middle, only with an extra five games of disappointment added at the end.
If this is how the 2025-26 season plays out for the Chicago Bulls, then get ready for the cycle of false hope to continue. Only this time around, the Bulls won't even own a lottery pick, setting the team up for what could be one of the longest offseasons yet.