Bulls’ most obvious fix undermines their biggest advantage

Chicago's starting lineup needs some tweaking, except it doesn't…
Chicago Bulls v Utah Jazz
Chicago Bulls v Utah Jazz | Alex Goodlett/GettyImages

After five straight losses, the Chicago Bulls finally broke through—outlasting the Western Conference’s second-best team, the Denver Nuggets, 130–127. Chicago held off Denver rallies in both the second and fourth quarters to secure its hardest-fought win of the season.

The Bulls led by as many as 18 points in the second quarter and 13 in the fourth, both stretches fueled by the reserves. As a result, the plus/minus numbers told a bizarre story: no Bulls starter finished better than minus–11, while every member of the second unit posted at least a plus-4.

Most notably, Kevin Huerter—who scored 20 points, hit the go-ahead triple with 1:25 remaining, assisted Nikola Vučević’s three-pointer that put Chicago up four with 33 seconds left, and knocked down the game-sealing free throws with under two seconds to play—still finished with a team-worst minus-21.

On the flip side, Dalen Terry played 18 minutes, scored just five points, and still finished a team-best plus-18. Terry absolutely made his mark. He added four assists and several energy plays, but the larger takeaway is glaringly obvious. Chicago’s bench is its greatest advantage.

Chicago's bench is its key to success

Ayo Dosunmu, Jalen Smith, and even seldom-used Jevon Carter powered the Bulls’ win. Dosunmu went off for 21 points on 8-of-9 shooting, Smith totaled 16 points and eight boards, and Carter erupted for 15 points, all from deep.

It naturally raises the question: why isn’t Dosunmu, or even Smith, starting? Okoro scored only two points, and the Bulls were without both Tre Jones and Coby White in their three-point win over the Nuggets. And while Vučević is a former All-Star, his play has dipped in recent weeks.

The answer is obvious, though it probably shouldn’t be. Even with Dosunmu ranking third on the team in scoring and Smith averaging an impressive 10.2 points in just 16.0 minutes, their roles are better left untouched. The Bulls’ bench, missing Jones, White, and Zach Collins, still outscored the Nuggets’ reserves 66–9. Yes, you read that correctly: 66–9.

Chicago’s reserves have given the team a huge advantage. For example, the Bulls are 15.9 points better per 100 possessions with Dosunmu on the floor, compared with just 1.0 points worse per 100 possessions with Giddey. That doesn’t necessarily mean Dosunmu is more impactful than Giddey overall (context matters), but it highlights the outsized influence of Chicago’s bench.

On a broader scale, every Bulls reserve except Patrick Williams posts a positive on/off differential—meaning the team performs better when almost all of its reserves are on the floor. The starters paint a different picture, and it's not a pretty one.

But is disrupting a winning formula worth it? Probably not. And that’s likely what Billy Donovan is thinking. Keeping Dosunmu off the starting lineup all season supports that approach. Even if the starters are being outplayed, Donovan would be wise to leave a successful system intact.

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