The Chicago Bulls are stuck in purgatory. We have known this for years, as the team has finished between 8th and 13th in the Eastern Conference in nine of the past 10 years. That's impressive consistency... Just not in the way fans would like.
Would the NBA's new anti-tanking ideas help or hurt the Bulls? Commissioner Adam Silver recently put forth three ideas to curb tanking in the NBA. None of them received universal praise, but the thought process behind them makes sense for the most part.
If any of these strategies were implemented right now, would the Bulls benefit? Maybe. Or it may empower the front office to keep winning exactly 39 games every year.
An 18-team draft lottery would keep the Bulls where they are
I think this proposal would hurt the Bulls monumentally because it would allow the front office to keep doing what has frustrated fans for so long — attempt to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed and think that's enough to keep fans happy. In this proposal, even the play-in teams that qualify for the playoffs are put into the draft lottery (and would have an 8% chance of moving up in the draft). It's AK's dream, basically... But wouldn't help the Bulls in any meaningful way.
I don't hate this proposal for the league as a whole, but I do think it would doom the Bulls to many more years of the cycle they've been in for so long. Instead of making the play-in and fans hoping the Bulls lose so they can potentially get lucky in the lottery, this would cause fans to not care whether they lose in the play-in or the first round... And still praying for the off-chance that they get some lottery luck. It wouldn't feel much different.
The 22-team, two-year lottery would likely help Bulls
Bear with me here. The second proposal from Silver would be a 22-team draft lottery (every team that misses the playoffs or loses in the first round) and the odds for the lottery would be based on the prior two seasons, not just one.
Also importantly, this proposal includes a "minimum win floor" to eliminate tanking. Say the hypothetical win floor is 30 games per year. In that case, a team that wins 15 games one year and 20 the next (for a total of 35) would actually enter the lottery as a team with 60 wins over two years.
I believe this would actually help the Bulls (assuming the strategy of the Bulls' front office doesn't change any time soon), who will likely be good enough in 2026-27 to (you will never believe this) compete for a backend play-in spot.
For a team that's been infamous for its refusal to fully tank, the minimum win floor would help their draft lottery odds considerably, as this proposal would essentially get rid of the "stuck in mediocrity" teams and actually reward them for trying to win — assuming the win floor really is around 30, which would be my guess.
The "5x5" method still seemingly rewards tanking
And finally, we have the strangest proposal out of the bunch, which is a "5x5" lottery where there are two lottery drawings. The first would include 18 teams (the teams that miss the playoffs and the play-in teams) and would determine the top five picks in the draft. In this lottery, the five worst teams would all have the same odds and it would descend from there.
After that lottery, there would be another lottery determining picks 6-18. If any of the five worst teams don't get a top-five pick, the lowest they could fall is No. 10.
No, I don't get why (or how) this counts as two lotteries. If only say, the eight worst teams participated in the first lottery to determine the first five picks, that would make more sense... But it's not. I digress.
I don't think this helps the Bulls, who will not qualify as one of the five worst teams in the league this year, and likely won't next year, either, barring a complete change in strategy.
One draft lottery proposal helps Bulls more than the others
Who knows how any of this will play out, or if any of these proposals will actually be implemented. I will say, though, that historically when Adam Silver announces early plans for rule changes, they're usually close to the finish line.
If Bulls fans were forced to pick one of these strange proposals, though, I think the two-year lottery with the win floor is by far the most beneficial to the team, and the one that would (actually) curb tanking in a meaningful way.