When the Chicago Bulls traded Alex Caruso to Oklahoma City and let DeMar DeRozan head West to Sacramento, it seemed apparent a long-awaited franchise rebuild was finally on the horizon.
Heading into the Jan. 14, 2025 slate of games, that has not been the case.
The Bulls once again find themselves fighting for a spot in the postseason as they sit 10th in the Eastern Conference standings at 18-21. They're currently two games up on the Philadelphia 76ers for the final spot in the East Play-In Tournament.
Stuck in NBA purgatory isn't an unfamiliar place for Chicago. For the past few seasons, the Bulls haven't been good enough to legitimately compete, but also not bad enough to earn a shot at a top draft pick.
The organization is right back in the same place. If this year's first-round pick doesn't land in the top 10, it will head to San Antonio, and the Bulls will lose one of the most valuable assets an NBA franchise can possess.
Now, the team has learned the exact date it'll find out whether or not this nightmare scenario will come true.
The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on May 12
Chicago finds itself in a more precarious position this season than in years past.
The Bulls still owe a protected first-round pick to the Spurs from the DeRozan trade in 2021. It's protected 1-10 this season, 1-8 in 2026 and 1-8 again in 2027. After that, Chicago owes San Antonio its 2028 second-round selection.
The Caruso and DeRozan trades last summer were, at least from the outside looking in, supposed to be the first of a handful of deals that would see the Bulls rid themselves of some overpriced veterans. That listed included Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Now that he's healthy, productive and on an expiring contract, it also includes Lonzo Ball.
Torrey Craig and Jevon Carter can be added to the queue as well.
So far, however, Chicago's front office has traded exactly zero of those players as the team continues to once again toil away in mediocrity.
To ensure their 2025 first-rounder stays in-house, the Bulls have to finish with one of the sixth-worst records in the league. As of Jan. 14, eight teams are behind them in the standings, including the Washington Wizards (6-32) and New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets, both of whom have eight wins.
Four more teams have 13 or fewer victories; at least seven are outwardly tanking and battling it out for the No. 1 selection.
The chances the Bulls finish in the bottom six of the NBA this season are just about out the window already, and the longer players like LaVine, Vucevic and Ball stay, the worse those chances get.
According to Tankathon, Chicago owns the ninth-best odds at the No. 1 overall pick and has a 25.9 percent chance at staying in the top 10.
Once the draft lottery rolls around on May 12, whether or not Chicago holds onto its most valuable current asset will be up to the basketball gods and some ping-pong balls. That's not an ideal place to be.