Breaking down Bulls’ potential first-round playoff matchup vs Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls have a complicated history dating back to Jan. 2022. The Bulls’ season went downhill following Grayson Allen’s flagrant 2 foul on Alex Caruso that resulted Caruso breaking his wrist and missing seven weeks of play.

In that stretch, Chicago went under .500 and their perimeter defense took a turn for the worse, as they were already missing Lonzo Ball and Patrick Williams. The team only won five games in the month of March and dropped to sixth in the east.

If they do finish the season as the No. 6 seed, they could be stuck with a first-round matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks completed the season sweep on Tuesday night in Chicago in dominant fashion. In a game where Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton each were in foul trouble, the Bucks led by double digits for the majority of the game.

Breaking down a potential Bulls-Bucks first-round playoff matchup

The Bulls had problems keeping Milwaukee off the offensive glass and out of transition. Chicago doesn’t have anyone who can easily match up with Antetokounmpo … but then again, who does? Without Ball, they don’t have enough capable defenders to properly stop Jrue Holiday and Kris Middleton while trying to manage Antetokounmpo — a problem that was key in Tuesday night’s matchup. Antetokounmpo didn’t even kill the Bulls, or even attempt many shots, in the first half. The Bucks still led by double digits going into the break behind strong performances from Holiday, Middleton and Allen.

Above all, the Bucks have the length to bother DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, who did not play on Tuesday. DeRozan was able go off in this game, specifically when Antetokounmpo had to go to the bench. The Bucks’ primary and secondary defense did a great job of making him change directions and managed to disrupt his shot. Each attempt was well contested and any ball rotation was defended.

The on-court mix matches and the emotions tied to the January incident make the Bucks a team the Bull don’t want any part of. But as of now, they are stuck with the Bucks in the first round of the playoffs if the season were to end today.

What are the Bulls key to success against the Bucks ?

The Bucks are in the top half of the NBA in offensive rebounding, averaging nearly 14 points off offensive rebounds. The Bulls allow the 10th most points off second-chance opportunities.

The Bucks thrive in in the open court, as shown in all of the highlights of Antetokounmpo dunking on fast breaks. They rank in the 11th in fast break points and seventh in pace. When forced to set up their offense and get into secondary breaks, they struggle to get proper rotations and rely on Middleton as their primary option.

In those moments, Antetokounmpo’s player impact estimate drops from 21.4 to 15.7. When the game slows up, 39% of his points come from second-chance opportunities. In halfcourt sets, the Bucks rely on Middleton to be their primary option — a formula that makes their offense containable.

In their first matchup, the Bulls struggled to get stops in crunch time and allowed four offensive rebounds in the final 2:30 of the game. The Bucks average 46 rebounds per game, but against the Bulls were able to pull down 52 boards — 11 of which were offensive rebounds.

In the final matchup, Antetokounmpo couldn’t get going, only attempting three shots in the first half. The Bucks dominated the game but only led by 12. Once Antetokounmpo pounded the ball inside and attacked the glass, the game broke open for the Bucks.

Limiting the Bucks offensive rebounding will be a major key to the Bulls’ success and can help stop Antetokounmpo. Defending Antetokounmpo one-on-one is practically a non starter. The best way to limit his impact on the game is to limit his minutes on the court.

As great as the Greek Freak is on defense, he has a trouble with defending on-ball without fouling. Most notably, he has fouled out of crucial playoff games that became the Bucks undoing prior to their 2021 championship run.

In Tuesday night’s matchup, the Bulls were able to make a small comeback by getting Antetokounmpo in foul trouble. DeRozan was relentless in attacking Antetokounmpo on switches and baited him into dumb fouls. The same technique worked for the Mavericks over the weekend as well.

As a help-side defender, Antetokounmpo swats at everything — especially on fast breaks. The Bulls guards will have to attack Antetokounmpo on fast-break opportunities, going into his chest and absorbing the contact like DeRozan did on Tuesday.

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer tried to combat Antetokounmpo’s bad habit by removing him as one of their defensive stoppers. He moved Antetokounmpo onto their opponent’s weaker offensive threats. Antetokounmpo has been able to quarterback the Bucks defense, getting highlight-reel weak side blocks in crunch time — like his many clutch rejections in last year’s Finals.

Chicago will need to run the pick and roll with DeRozan and whoever Antetokounmpo is guarding. In those moments, Antetokounmpo overplays on the switch – practically allowing a drive by with the hope of blocking the shot from behind. He also drops back, giving the guard space to shoot.

DeRozan will feast in either option, possibly drawing an and-one, as he did on Tuesday night.

The most successful Greek Freak blueprint was used in the 2019 playoffs. The Bucks lost four straight to the eventual champion Toronto Raptors after they “built a wall” that forced Antetokounmpo to shoot over length in the middle of the paint, not allowing him looks right at the basket.

They put a mobile, long defender — Kawhi Leonard — on Antetokounmpo, and when he got downhill, Leonard and another defender, typically a versatile post player like Serge Ibaka, would trap Giannis once he began showing verticality.

This concept is similar to blitzing guards in the pick and roll, only instead of trapping up top, the trap comes in the paint area on a drive, a scheme that teams have been using on DeRozan and LaVine since late February.

Antetokounmpo had a hard time with this scheme because it forced him to make proper reads and maintain control as he drove downhill. He fouled out of one game, picking up two charges trying to go through the “wall.” He also racked up turnovers trying to make last-second kick outs.

This worked for the Raptors because they had size and mobility from their small forward to their center that season. The Bull have similar versatility.

Tony Bradley, Tristan Thompson and Nikola Vucevic have the height to create the wall with Derrick Jones Jr. as the primary defender. Granted, two of the players named for this scheme aren’t in the team’s rotations, so either Billy Donovan will have to be flexible or the Bulls can’t use this option.

If the Bulls are successful in limiting Antetokounmpo, they will be in good shape to shock the world in the first round. If not, their playoff run will be a rerun of their regular season series with the Bucks.