Lack of offensive rebounding a necessary trade off with Nikola Vucevic?

Among the more interesting aspects to the game of two-time All-Star Chicago Bulls center Nikola Vucevic is the difference in rebounding impact on each end of the floor. Vucevic is one of those big men around the league that has the capability of spacing the floor, rebounding the ball well on the defensive glass, and posting up with some vintage back-to-the-basket moves. But this skill set also creates some disparities in rebounding numbers that are having an impact on the entire team’s stats this season.

Now, before I jump into this I do want to mention that it’s obvious why Vucevic often has a stark contrast in his numbers on both ends of the floor.

Vucevic is a center that often lives in the paint on defense and is either the shot creator or living beyond the arc on the offensive end. This creates a disparity in the number of opportunities that Vucevic has to rebound the basketball on the offensive end compared to defense.

Nonetheless, it is still worth analyzing and having a discussion about the trade-offs that the Bulls must take with Vucevic playing at the five in terms of the contrast in offensive rebounding numbers compared to defense.

So far this season, Vucevic has registered a defensive rebounding percentage of 31.1, good for the third-highest number of his career to date. But he’s also put up a 6.6 offensive rebounding percentage, good for the second-lowest of his career thus far.

The lack of offensive rebounding from Vucevic is having an impact on a lack of additional chances created from offensive boards from other sources. The Bulls currently rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage this season. Vucevic’s lack of a presence on the offensive glass is obviously one of the biggest driving factors to this.

There also isn’t another player that the Bulls have on the roster that can grab some of those extra offensive rebounds that’s getting regular minutes at the four or five off the bench. Backup center Tony Bradley does have the best offensive rebounding percentage on the team this season among eligible players, but he’s not getting enough minutes off the bench to really make a mark for the Bulls as a whole.

So what should the Bulls be looking for in terms of big men that are versatile like Vucevic, but can also rebound the ball well offensively?

The Bulls could really use a big man that can be an adept floor spacer and hit the offensive glass hard that serves as an anchor to the second unit. There is one statistical area that can be used as a test to find that potential backup center for the Bulls.

Any big men this season that have an offensive rebounding percentage north of 8.0 and a three-point attempt rate of at least .150 serve as the target market for the Bulls in terms of finding a potential backup center. This group that meets those criteria includes the likes of Toronto Raptors center Chris Boucher, Dallas Mavericks power forward/center Dwight Powell, and Milwaukee Bucks power forward Bobby Portis, among a few others.

Those bigs are all effective floor spacers while putting up an offensive rebounding percentage in the double digits. Boucher and Powell are also pretty effective rim protectors for the Raptors and Mavs, respectively, coming off the bench.

If the Bulls are going to seek out help at the trade deadline, that is the group of big men to filter through.

Chicago Bulls need Nikola Vucevic to pick up his shooting efficiency to make up for an absence on the offensive glass

Now that we’ve briefly addressed that matter, it’s worth tackling the subject of the trade-off in Vucevic’s offensive rebounding production (or lack thereof).

There is one statistical trend for Vucevic that shows just how productive he will be on the offensive glass year in and year out. His three-point attempt rate tends to serve as an indicator to what his offensive rebounding production will be each season.

A good example of this is the fact that his four worst offensive rebounding seasons of his career were also the four where he had a three-point attempt rate north of .200. And the only seasons where his offensive rebounding percentage cracked the double digits was when his three-point attempt rate was south of .050.

Knowing the fact that Vucevic’s floor spacing is a more crucial part of the Bulls’ offensive gameplan than just planting him in the paint all the time to nab maybe one or two extra offensive rebounds per game, what is the trade-off this team is facing?

There are two aspects to cover in this regard. The first is the fact that Vucevic is extremely valuable on offense when he’s hitting his looks from beyond the arc. But Vucevic is having one of his worst seasons shooting from deep thus far.

So far this season, Vucevic is shooting just north of 33 percent from beyond the arc. That is more than a five percentage point dip from the last couple of seasons with the Bulls and Orlando Magic. He’s clearly just not finding his rhythm this season, especially from above the break.

Even when Vucevic gets closer to the basket, he’s not much more effective shooting from mid-range. In fact, Vucevic is shooting four percentage points worse than his career average from the mid-range this season at just 44 percent.

The good news here, though is the fact that Vucevic is starting to improve in at least one of these areas. Vucevic is still struggling to find his shot from deep, but his mid-range shooting picked up by more than five percentage points in January compared to the prior two months.

The fact of the matter is that Vucevic needs to find his stroke shooting from deep. It’s hurting the Bulls otherwise and it allows teams to drop their coverage more and provide help defense quicker on other threats that the Bulls have on offense such as Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.

Vucevic’s lack of offensive impact at times this season is also evident when looking at his numbers in plays as the pick-and-roll man. According to NBA advanced stats, Vucevic is the most frequently utilized pick-and-roll man of any player in the league this season. He gets roughly seven possessions per game as the pick-and-roll man.

But the Bulls are only scoring around .9 points per possession with Vucevic as the pick-and-roll or screen-and-roller, which is good for just the 22nd percentage in the league. That is not the number the Bulls are obviously looking for.

The fix for that is as simple as Vucevic finding his stroke from the mid-range and from beyond the arc in the second half of the season. Making even one more three-point attempt per game when he either is the pick-man or popping out after the screen could up that number of points per possession by roughly 50 percent.

All in all, the Bulls had to expect to not rebound the ball too well on the offensive glass with Vucevic acting as a floor spacer playing at the five more often than not. His offensive rebounding percentage sitting at 6.6 is not a surprise this season.

But the Bulls do need him to be more efficient otherwise to make the best use of his skill set. The Bulls also need to find a more capable big man that can hit the offensive glass while spacing the floor when called upon.

It is worth mentioning that the likes of wing Javonte Green, forward Derrick Jones Jr., and power forward Tyler Cook are making a positive impact on the offensive glass. This is more of a side note showing that what success the Bulls do have some forwards capable of making an impact on the offensive glass to help pick up the pace in this regard.

In fact, each of those three forwards has a better offensive rebounding percentage this season than Vucevic. That trio is helping to plug the gap for the Bulls this season. They’re also likely the reason why the Bulls aren’t dead last in the league in offensive rebounding percentage this season.

Vucevic and the Bulls are sporting a record of 31-18 following a solid double-digit win over the Portland Trail Blazers at home last weekend. Next up for the Bulls is a meeting with Vucevic’s former team, the Magic, at home on Feb. 1.