Chicago Bulls: Live by the LaVine, die by the LaVine

If there is one true narrative for the Chicago Bulls and second-year head coach Billy Donovan out of the gates this season, it is the fact that the team lives and dies by the production of star shooting guard Zach LaVine. This narrative has become especially true in the wake of the absence of star center Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls are likely to continue to experience any ups and downs that LaVine does in the next week or so until Vucevic returns.

At the moment, Vucevic is out due to the league’s health and safety protocol. He’s already missed two games and will at least be out for the next six or seven days.

In his absence, the Bulls are counting on the duo of LaVine and star shooting guard/forward DeMar DeRozan to continue to perform as some of the most efficient and productive scorers in the Eastern Conference. A big win over the weekend over star forward Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers on the road at the Staples Center proved just how effective this star duo of LaVine and DeRozan can be for the Bulls when they’re both on.

Yet, there are numbers that back up the idea that the Bulls’ success in the win column tends to trend in relation to LaVine’s overall production more so than any other individual player so far this season. Granted, this does make sense given the fact that LaVine is the highest-usage player on the team.

Chicago Bulls succeeding when Zach LaVine is productive and efficient in moderation

In the seven games this season where LaVine posted his lowest game score, the Bulls hold a record of 3-4. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 6-0 in the six highest game scores of the season for LaVine. This is a leading indicator of how the Bulls’ face of the franchise and most important player is still LaVine, despite all of the big new additions since the trade deadline last season.

Now, a lot of Bulls fans are probably saying at this point that of course, LaVine is important to the team. That’s not news to anyone. But the degree to which the Bulls are still very reliant on the production of LaVine is pretty astounding.

If you look at some of the advanced box scores for LaVine this season, you also notice an interesting trend emerging this season. When LaVine has a usage rate north of 30 percent this season, the Bulls hold a record of 2-4.

In reality, this indicates that the Bulls do best when they spread the ball around and use all of their offensive weapons effectively. Last season, the Bulls didn’t have offensive weapons to turn to like Vucevic, DeRozan, point guard Lonzo Ball, etc. It made sense to have LaVine initiate the offense on most possessions.

But now, that will lead to an overreliance on LaVine. And extremely high usage rates for LaVine also tend to lead to high turnover rates. In the six games this season where LaVine had a usage rate north of 30 percent, he also registered a turnover rate in the double-digits percentage-wise. He’s averaged a turnover percentage north of 20 percent in the six games where his usage rate was higher than 30 percent.

Meanwhile, when LaVine’s usage rate is below 30 percent, the Bulls are undefeated this season with a record of 7-0. And his turnover rate tends to stay in the single digits percentage-wise when his usage rate is in a more reasonable range (usually around 25 percent). LaVine’s turnover rate was well below 10 percent in six of the seven games where his usage rate was higher than 30 percent.

All in all, it looks like Donovan and the Bulls found a formula that works really well this season in terms of distribution of the ball on offense. LaVine is still extremely important to what this team does. But the Bulls will be at their best when LaVine is taking fewer than 30 percent of the shots on offense.

Following this big 10-point win over the Clippers on the road on the night of Nov. 14, LaVine and the Bulls own a record of 9-4. Next up for the Bulls is the back-end of back-to-back games in a meeting with the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center again on Nov. 15.