Chicago Bulls: Appreciating the gradual star ascent of Zach LaVine

In a perfect world, first-year head coach Billy Donovan and the Chicago Bulls would’ve found a way to rally down the stretch during the regular season and get a top-six seed in the playoffs following the acquisition of star center Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls invested a lot to get Vooch to the Windy City, to give star shooting guard Zach LaVine a legit running mate that is a top-tier talent in the NBA.

That is something that LaVine never really got during his run with the Bulls pre-deadline 2021. The hope prior to trading for Vooch was that someone like center Wendell Carter Jr., power forward Lauri Markkanen, and/or point guard Coby White would rise to the occasion and become a true star along with LaVine.

But out of the Bulls’ young core that was previously pieced together under the former front office pairing of John Paxson and Gar Forman, LaVine was the only one that truly gained star status thus far. WCJ is already with another team, as he was dealt off to the Orlando Magic in that deadline day deal that got the Bulls Vooch.

And it looks like Markkanen’s time in Chicago is soon to come to an end. He’s set to hit restricted free agency this summer, and likely has some other destinations in mind.

Moreover, what does remain for the Bulls heading into the summer months is a true star pairing that they can build the rest of this core around. LaVine looks to be the center of the Bulls’ plans at the moment heading into the future.

The three most important pieces of the Bulls’ newfound core under executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas and general manager Marc Eversley are LaVine, Vooch, and rookie forward Patrick Williams. It should be easiest, though, for Karnisovas and Eversley to build around LaVine given his rise to bona fide stardom in recent years.

LaVine established himself as a true star in the NBA this season, as he earned his first career All-Star nod. He was already on that path in the past two seasons, but LaVine was able to post another career year with the Bulls at 26 years of age.

Chicago Bulls righting the ship with Zach LaVine as a centerpiece

It’s just a shame that the Bulls weren’t able to get that final push to get over the playoff hump this year to end the career-long postseason drought for LaVine. But that time could come as soon as the 2022 postseason.

Especially if LaVine continues the rate of improvement he’s found in the past few seasons, he’s going to potentially challenge for the title of superstardom for the Bulls. Fans in Chicago have to admire what LaVine has done in recent years, and the counting stats, shooting percentages, and advanced metrics prove the true growth in his game.

LaVine is one of just a handful of players in the NBA that were an All-Star at least once in the past three seasons, finished in the top 25 this season in value over replacement player, and improved their VORP mark year-over-year in that same span of time.

LaVine improved his box plus/minus, offensive rating, player efficiency rating, value over replacement player, and win shares per 48 minutes, in each of the last three seasons. And it all came to a climax this season, with him being among one of the league’s best in terms of advanced metrics for guards.

In the season that was for the Bulls, LaVine registered a career-best 3.7 box plus/minus, 2.9 value over replacement player, .138 win shares per 48 minutes, 5.9 total win shares, 63.4 true shooting percentage, and 21.5 player efficiency rating.

What was also very impressive about LaVine’s play for the Bulls this season was how well he shot the ball. For the first time in his career, he legitimately challenged to become part of the 50/40/90 club.

He fell just short due to a dip in free-throw percentage. This was still an impressive showing for his shooting percentages nonetheless. He shot 50.7 percent from the field, 41.9 percent from beyond the arc, and 84.9 percent from the free-throw line.

Previous career bests for LaVine in terms of shooting percentages were 46.7 percent from the field, 38.9 percent from beyond the arc, and 84.2 percent from the free-throw line.

A really good sign in terms of the advanced metrics LaVine produced in the past three seasons in his rate of improvement in total win shares and box plus/minus. He registered just 2.8 win shares in 2018-19, then 4.0 in 2019-20, and then a career-best 5.9 in 2020-21. In terms of box plus/minus, he posted 0.8 in 2018-19, 2.4 in 2019-20, and then a career-high 3.7 in 2020-21.

Any chance that he can keep up this rate of improvement could mean that the Bulls have a player potentially on the path to becoming a superstar in the next couple of years. But even at the current level that LaVine is producing at on the offensive end for the Bulls, he is someone they can build around along with Vooch.

The next steps for LaVine should be finding a way to continue to improve on the defensive end. He’s gone from being a slight net negative presence on the defensive end for the Bulls to being more of a net neutral perimeter defender. If he can even get to a place where his defensive box plus/minus and net rating on the defensive end are slightly above zero, that would be a game-changer for the Bulls completely.

Watch out for LaVine to be a focal point for the Bulls on a team that should finally be able to get over the hump and make it into the postseason. He’s going on a seven-year-long postseason drought at this point of his career.

The Bulls finished up the regular season with a record of 31-41. That was a nine-win improvement compared to the prior season, but it didn’t prevent them from missing the postseason for the fourth straight year.