3) 20-21 bold predictions for Chicago Bulls SG Zach LaVine
Posts a box plus/minus rating above 3.0, and reaches six win shares
One area of the stat line for LaVine last season that proved it was his best in his NBA career to date was the all-encompassing advanced metrics. LaVine was solid in the advanced stats department in each of his three seasons playing for the Bulls (barring the recovery from his knee injury a few years ago).
Last season, LaVine registered a career-high 2.4 box plus/minus rating, 19.4 player efficiency rating, 106 offensive rating/110 defensive rating, 2.4 value over replacement player rating, .091 win shares per 48 minutes, 4.0 total win shares, and a 56.8 true shooting percentage. His usage rate also sat at a career high 31.7 percent.
With second-year former North Carolina Tar Heels point guard Coby White looking like he’ll assume a role in the Bulls starting five this season, LaVine’s usage might drop a bit. But with another shot creator and effective distributor in the starting five, like White, LaVine’s overall efficiency might actually spike again this season.
LaVine won’t have as much of a burden to create his own shots and jump start the offense for 25-30 minutes per game, at least, like he did last season. And if his defensive numbers continue to improve (as they have the last couple of years), it’s not an unreasonable expectation that LaVine gets his box plus/minus rating and win share numbers up to career bests once again.