Chicago Bulls: Lauri Markkanen’s place in the 2017 redraft

Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen was selected 5th in the FanSided 2017 NBA Redraft. Is that too high, too low or just right?

NBA redrafts are a super fun exercise, especially when there aren’t live NBA games going on. FanSided recently began rolling out the results of its site-wide 2017 redraft (the Chicago Bulls’ pick will be announced on April 25).

Disclaimer: This redraft was completed with the Bulls and Timberwolves keeping their original picks. In other words, the Jimmy Butler trade never happened. 

Here’s how the first 10 picks played out:

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Donovan Mitchell
3. Boston Celtics: De’Aaron Fox
4. Phoenix Suns: Bam Adebayo
5. Sacramento Kings: Lauri Markkanen
6. Orlando Magic: Jonathan Isaac
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: John Collins
8. New York Knicks: OG Anunoby
9. Dallas Mavericks: Luke Kennard
10. Sacramento Kings: Jarrett Allen

The first two picks are easy. Knowing what we know now, Tatum and Mitchell would be guaranteed to go at no. 1 and no. 2. The third and fourth picks are fairly easy too. Some may prefer Adebayo over Fox, but those two players belong in spots three and four, regardless of the specific order. After the first four picks, it gets a little hazy.

Immediately after his rookie season, one could’ve argued that Markkanen belonged in the top-5 pick discussion, but he’s shown regression in his aggressiveness and a disturbing inability to stay healthy. Should he still be in the top-five discussion? It all depends on who’s available.

I think Markkanen is a better player than Isaac, Anunoby, Kennard and Allen. So at worst, he’s the sixth-best player from this draft class. But John Collins, who was selected seventh overall by the Timberwolves in this redraft, is an intriguing top-five option.

Let’s look at the numbers over their three-year careers:

Player A: 16.1 points/7.6 rebounds/1.3 assists per game on .430/.356/.848 shooting splits

Player B: 16.2 points/8.8 rebounds/1.6 assists per game on .571/.369/.757 shooting splits 

The numbers are really similar. The only real difference is that one player is far more efficient than the other player. For further proof, here’s a look at their career true shooting percentages:

Player A: 55.5 percent 

Player B: 63.4 percent 

That’s a big difference. If you only had the 3-point percentages to go off of, you’d probably think Player B is Markkanen. He’s known as a deep sniper and Collins is known as a punishing rim runner. But the rebounding numbers and true shooting percentages give it away. Player B is Collins.

It’s hard to look at those numbers and justify picking Markkanen over Collins. If you factor in the eye test, the result is the same. Markkanen has a tendency to disappear for large stretches at a time. Collins makes his presence known. They both are best at the four but can play some small-ball five. The simple truth is that Collins is just better.

With all that being said, at pick no. 5, Lauri Markkanen was drafted too high in this redraft. If I’m the Kings, I’d rather have Collins.

Verdict: Too high