Chicago Bulls early struggles belie offensive progress

Hope and optimism were two words commonly associated with the Chicago Bulls this offseason. After the slow start shock and awe may be more appropriate.

The Chicago Bulls 1-2 start has felt like 2018 never left. To be honest, they were never going to put up the numbers they did during the preseason. The efficiency they showed was always the biggest sign that there was some fool’s gold to the production. But the hope was they would find a happy medium.

Reality Bites

That hasn’t been the case, not even remotely. In fact, the numbers the Bulls put up in the preseason (and used to defend their playoff mindset) have regressed to sub-Hoibergian levels.

There are a few issues that are currently more glaring than others. Beyond their blatant disregard for defending the three-point line, their transition defense has been atrocious. They have seen their shooting numbers fall precipitously, namely in their catch and shoot numbers. They have also struggled with free throws, both in getting there and converting.

Jim Boylen has implemented an offense featuring multiple ball-handlers and the results have been mixed. The Bulls are struggling to hit shots, that much is obvious. But it has been amplified because the culprits have been notable.

Zach LaVine got off to a slow start in the opener and pressed to get out of it. Lauri Markkanen went off in that game but has been completely off the mark since. Otto Porter hasn’t been effective on either end of the floor. Wendell Carter looks as in shape as one would expect with him missing the preseason. Still, there are positive signs in all the madness.

Ball Don’t Stick

The Bulls are 22nd in assists, averaging 20.3 per game. That is down from the 25 they averaged in the preseason and is more reminiscent of 2018 when they averaged 21.8 assists per game, 27th in the NBA. But with the team shooting so poorly from the perimeter, their assist numbers being down is not a surprise.

Yes, the Bulls are 21st in passes made and 22nd in assists. But they jump up to 12th in potential assists and 13th in adjusted assist to pass percentage. In other words, if they were knocking down shots with more regularity this wouldn’t be as big of an issue.

Chicago is ninth in catch-and-shoot attempts and eighth in catch-and-shoot three attempts but is shooting 30.1 percent (25th) and 29.9 percent (24th) on those shots, respectively.

That isn’t to say they would be moving the ball like the Golden State Warriors at their peak. Even when accounting for the poor shooting, they would still only come in 21st. Last year they came in 29th in that category. They are moving the ball better this season, just with little to show for it.

Time and Pace

Not only are the Bulls moving the ball better than many might realize, but they are also getting up and down the floor at a much higher pace than a season ago. They finished the 2018-19 season ranked 20th in pace at 99.3. This year they are up to 105.5, good enough for 11th. Oddly enough, the faster pace hasn’t been the cause of the shooting woes.

It almost seems counter-intuitive, but the Bulls offense has gotten better as games have worn on. Maybe that is too strong of an assertion, but they have improved from the first to the second half of games. In the opening two quarters, the Bulls slash 35.9/22.8/70.8, all poor numbers. The second half sees that line raise to 44.6/34/76.6, or right around league average.

To be even more exact, the third quarter has been the money quarter for Chicago. Their shooting numbers in the first and second frames are 37.3/20/72.7 and 34.2/25.9/69.2, respectively. The fourth is better, but still an uphill battle with the team going 34.8/30.4/75 over the final 12 minutes.

A slow start and sluggish finish suggest that, while the pace may not be too much for the Bulls, they are clearly still adjusting to it. Growing pains should be expected.

Score Score Score

The Bulls offense ‘explodes’ in the thirds quarters of games. Their shooting numbers improve to 53.4 percent from the floor, 37 percent from deep, and 85.7 percent at the free-throw line. They also score 31.3 points per third quarter, nearly four points more than in fourth quarters and more than nine points more than in second quarters.

The Bulls are also experiencing a tough time getting to the free-throw line. And when they have gotten there, converting has proven to be an issue all its own. Chicago is 24th in fouls drawn and 19th in both free throw attempts and free throw percentage.

It is tough enough that they aren’t getting the calls they should be, but to not be hitting them is just adding self-inflicted injury to insult.

And yes, they should be getting those calls. The Bulls have maintained their aggressive approach offensively, ranking 13th in drives per game after finishing 2018 ranked fourth. While they are converting them at a slightly higher clip so far this season, they aren’t getting the benefit of that aggression in the form of free throws; ranking 17th in free throw attempts off of drives.

Offense a Work in Progress

These numbers aren’t suggesting the Bulls are some sort of sleeping giant on the verge of putting the league on notice. But there are still signs of growth. The start to this season just serves as a reminder that this is all a work in progress. Playoffs are still a reasonable thought, but only because there is still so much basketball left to play.

When you realize the Bulls are third in offensive boards and turnovers and eighth in bench scoring things seem less bleak. Even the defense has its silver lining ranking second in steals. Hopefully, that progress starts manifesting itself into wins.