Chicago Bulls: Is Zach LaVine ready to meet everyone’s expectations?
By Abe Rotbart
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine still has holes in his game. This team provides him with the perfect players to support his growth into an NBA all-star.
In a Hoops Habit article from three months ago, entitled “Chicago Bulls: 2018-19 player grades for Zach LaVine”, James Gilmore winds up giving LaVine an overall grade of an A for offense and a D for defense.
One would surmise from the article that the biggest hole in Zach LaVine’s game is on the defensive end. Certainly Jim Boylen welcomes improvement on that end from all his players, considering his team finished 25th in defensive rating last year, allowing 113.94 points per 100 possessions.
Let’s not forget though that the Chicago Bulls were also 29th in offensive rating. They only scored 105.45 points per 100 possessions. If you can do the math, and I am sure Boylen can, that is an average loss of 8.49 points a game. Obviously, he would welcome improvement from all his players on offense also, including from LaVine.
In what area of his offensive game can LaVine improve, if he already has scored an A?
Well, it is often said that a good defense is a good offense and vise versa. In Zach’s case his turnovers made a bad offense into a bad defense. LaVine was 11th worse in the league when it comes to turnovers per 36 minutes.
Until Zach learns to play more in control, any improvement with his defense will be limited by the transition baskets he gives up by turning the ball over. I therefore, rate his 2018-19 offensive production as an A minus at best.
I decided to see where Zach LaVine stands against all-star shooting guards when it comes to defensive rating (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions) and turnovers. This is what I found with the help of basketball-reference.com and NBA.com. All stats are per 36 minutes of action.
Jimmy Butler – 1.6 turnovers, 108.3 defensive rating
CJ McCollum – 1.6 turnovers, 108.9 defensive rating
Donovan Mitchell – 3.0 turnovers, 103.7 defensive rating
Bradley Beal – 2.7 turnovers, 113.5 defensive rating
Klay Thompson – 1.6 turnovers, 108.5 defensive rating
Zach LaVine – 3.6 turnovers, 112.4 defensive rating
Per 36 minutes of play, LaVine has the highest turnovers and second worst defensive rating from of the list above. Clearly, these are only two statistical categories out of many. One can also argue that defensive rating is heavily influenced by who on your team is watching your back.
A case further can be made that without a quality starting point guard, LaVine was forced to handle the ball a lot more than the Bulls probably wanted him to.
Still, with a harder effort on defense, better players behind him and more efficient ball handlers, there is no reason that LaVine cannot put up numbers similar, if not better than a couple of the players I have compared him to.
Judging by the players the Bulls have recently traded for or signed, let’s see if LaVine will have players that can at the least compensate for his weaknesses if not support him in taking his game to the next level. Again per 36 minutes:
Tomas Satoransky – 2.0 turnovers, 110.5 defensive rating (note: most of his 2018-19 minutes came during a tank in Washington after Beal was hurt and Otto Porter Jr. traded. In 2017-18 his rating was 105.6!)
Thad Young – 1.8 turnovers, 106.5 defensive rating
Otto Porter Jr. – 1.4 turnovers, 111.6 defensive rating (note: he was already on the 2018-19 tanking Bulls for a large chunk of the season. In 2017-18, his rating was 105.1!)
Ryan Arcidiacono – 1.2 turnovers, 110.2 defensive rating (note: he spent the entire 2018-19 season on the tanking Bulls). He also made the top defensive play in the NBA last season. Here it is again, just for fun.
I think that one hustle play alone earned him the heart of his coach, management and fans.
The four recently added players mentioned above all are better in the areas that LaVine struggles. Considering that Arcidiacono and Satoransky should be handling the ball more than Zach, the number of team turnovers should go way down.
On a complementary level, they fit perfectly. LaVine’s scoring will compensate for their weaknesses and their strengths will counteract his deficiencies.
The Bulls have surrounded LaVine and the remaining young core of Laurie Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and rookie point guard Coby White with players that should help the entire team limit turnovers and play tougher defense.
As a wing player, LaVine should statistically compare to Porter Jr. with 1.4 turnovers a game. With defenders Young and a healthy Carter Jr. behind him, LaVine should be able to cut his defensive rate down a couple of points. It will be interesting to see how he compares in 2019-20 to the five-star players mentioned earlier.
Next. Individual challenges for each Chicago Bulls player in 2019-20. dark
LaVine is right on the cusp of taking his game to the next level. It would be a disappointment if he doesn’t. With the next all-star game scheduled for Chicago’s United Center, this is the year for Zach to make the jump we all anticipate. You can bet on him wearing the East’s jersey come Feb. 16.