Using math to prove the Chicago Bulls can nab the 4th seed

The Chicago Bulls finished with the 4th worst record last year. Here’s proof they could finish with home court advantage in the playoffs.

I hear you, Chicago Bulls fans. I hear your collective groan. But a modicum of optimism is a good thing, trust me.

The fact is that the Chicago Bulls are primed for a playoff push this year, and while most outlets have them landing somewhere just outside of playing basketball in mid-April to snagging the 7th or 8th seed, this particular writer is here to tell you that 4th in the East is a possibility when all is said and done. Don’t believe me? Check it.

Taking stats from the 4th place finishers in the East the past four years (2015-16 Atlanta Hawks, 2016-17 Washington Wizards, 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers, and 2018-19 Boston Celtics) and comparing them against the 2018-19 Chicago Bulls is indeed a dreary exercise, but once we consider the bold off-season moves executed by the league’s most hated front office, the tables turn.

The Bulls finished a dismal 25th in Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) last season at 113.2, compared to a 14th place finish for your average 4th seed and a 107.6 Defensive Rating (lower is better). They finished 29th in Offensive Rating (points produced per 100 possessions) at 104.8 compared to an average 11th place finish at 110.4 for 4th placers. Pace for the Bulls was actually right on par standing at 99 possessions per 48 minutes compared to 98 for our imaginary 4th placers.

So why the optimism?

Here are 5 reasons why:

1. Tomas Satoransky is taking the reins from Kris Dunn.
2. Otto Porter Jr. will be a starter all year, not Justin Holiday.
3. Wendell Carter Jr. will be healthy, taking over where Robin Lopez respectfully left off.
4. Thaddeus Young is in town to be first off the bench instead of Jabari Parker.
5. Coby White and Daniel Gafford just HAVE to be better than Ryan Arcidiacono and Cristiano Felício.

By taking the minutes per game each starter or bench player above played for the Bulls last season and dividing it by 240 (the total number of minutes available in the game), we can tell how much each Bull contributed to the overall rating. For example, Kris Dunn averaged 30.2 minutes per game, so we can reasonably assume that Satoransky will play a similar minutes-heavy role. Those 30.2 minutes made Dunn responsible for roughly 12.6% of the Bulls 104.8 Offensive Rating in 2018-19, or 13.2 points. Satoransky’s personal offensive rating in 2018-19 was 121 versus Dunn’s 99, translating to a 22.2% increase within that 12.6% of offensive production, or an additional 2.9 points to the overall team total.

Follow that?

If not it’s okay, because I’m here to tell you that when you add all those first four roster changes up above, you end up with an Offensive Rating for the ENTIRE Bulls 2019-20 squad of 110.5, which is shockingly close to the 110.4 of the last four 4th place finishers. On the defensive side we end up with a rating of 112.64, which is an improvement largely attributed to Thaddeus Young and Wendell Carter Jr.

The Defensive Rating is still not anywhere close to the 107.6 average we’re shooting for, but there’s still something we’re forgetting here:

"5. Coby White and Daniel Gafford just HAVE to be better than Ryan Arcidiacono and Cristiano Felício."

Since they have not played on the NBA level quite yet, I can’t gather their base stats, let alone advanced stats, but I believe my statement above will hold true in the end. Coby White and Daniel Gafford will most likely produce better offensive stats than Archie or the Brazilian Bum, but realistically they just have to be better statistically on the defensive side of the ball to take this team to the top… of the middle.

While White’s defensive stats from college aren’t exactly elite, he’s a willing defender and has shown a higher than average defensive IQ in general. Either way, he’s a better athlete than Archie (who I love by the way) which should translate to a greater ability to steal the ball and generally take away possessions from the other team.

And Coby White has a good end of the bench guy to push him in practices: Ryan Arcidiacono.

If you didn’t get a chance to check out Daniel Gafford, the Bull’s pick at number 38 in this year’s draft, go look up his highlights from Summer League on YouTube now. He looked like an absolute steal, averaging 2.8 blocks during the summer event. Sure, those numbers should always come with a grain of salt, but his rim protection could be elite, something Felicio will never be.

All in all, these two can probably be counted on to tip the scales to get us into the middle of the East. After all, who else will be there in the end? Behind the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, every team in the Eastern Conference has had a major shake up on their roster and no one is proven. It’s truly up in the air, and after witnessing a hastily slapped together Toronto Raptors roster overtake an (albeit injured) Warriors squad, I’d say there have been bigger surprises in recent memory.

So what do you think Bulls fans? Can the Bulls translate these stats into 27 more wins this season?