The Chicago Bulls Should Pass on Russell Westbrook Trade

The Chicago Bulls have a good thing going; slowly but hopefully, repairing a…blemished image. They need not ruin it by being themselves.

Could the Chicago Bulls trade for Russell Westbrook? With Paul George traded for all the picks, the Oklahoma City Thunder have essentially tossed a title chase anytime soon out the window and could look to rebuild completely. That would mean moving Westbrook. Likely to the East; hopefully not to the Bulls.

Before going any further, let this be made clear, Westbrook is an MVP and a whole laundry list of other superlatives. A lot of what you hear negative about him comes from the media and rarely from the players he played with. Take that as you will but it needs to be stated. Not only do they not blame him, they often defend him. Well, understandably, Russ and co. are now discussing future scenarios that could include a trade.

Enter John Paxson and Gar Forman.

Or better yet, don’t enter. This would seemingly be a spot where the Bulls can go and get a real (subjective) point guard and not count on the unknown learning curve of a rookie. But for what the Bulls have done so far, and despite being a solid landing spot for a superstar, Westbrook is not the answer for them.

But a slightly deeper look exposes the flaws that turn many in the NBA blogosphere off.

Since the 2014-15 season, Westbrook has shot in the 42 percent range from the floor three times, in the 29 percent-range from three four times, and shot a career-worst 65.6 percent from the free throw line last season. His 46.8 effective field goal percentage was his worst since that ’14-’15 campaign as well and was only slightly above Kris Dunn (45.7).

His playoff numbers did little to help either. While he raised his three-point percentage to 32.4 and the abysmal free throw percentage above 88 percent, his field goal percentage dropped to 36. Effective field goal percentage to 41. It all culminated in his third-straight first-round exit on averages of 22.8 points (his fewest since his rookie season), 10.6 assists, and 8.8 boards against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Russ came in 62nd out of 68 guards who started at least 41 games in true shooting percentage. His 50.1 mark was his lowest since 2009-10 and he only generated 2.8 points per catch-and-shoot opportunity on 31.4 percent shooting. That won’t help a Bulls team that generated more points off of drives than catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Only two teams did the same and still made the playoffs last year, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Brooklyn Nets (go figure).

Not done yet.

He produced his lowest assist percentage (46.5) since 2013-14, his fewest offensive win shares (1.8) since his rookie season and was 12th among point guards in ESPN’s real plus-minus.

Russell averaged a triple-double for the third year in a row. He has averaged double-digit assists for the past four years. There is basically no raw stat that Westbrook would not have led the Bulls in. He also had better offensive and defensive ratings than anyone on the Bulls.

Westbrook also had the most defensive win shares of his career last year, and while it didn’t offset his offensive inefficiency, his five dwarf the team-leading1.5…by Lauri Markkanen. Dunn, touted for his defense, had 1.2; slightly above Zach LaVine‘s (not a defender) 1.1. It was also good for fourth among qualifiers in the NBA while he ranked eighth in box plus-minus.

Speaking of Zach, he knocked down 37.6 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts so being off-ball more won’t sink his value. Lauri scores most of his points off an assist, though adding Westbrook is probably taking the Ball out of his hands too much. Still, we know Russ can find the open shooters.

https://twitter.com/chicagobulls/status/1147335114788986880?s=19

There’s also the potential that any trade would render the move lateral. If the deal looks anything like this (with some picks sprinkled in), who would replace Otto Porter? Chandler Hutchison and Denzel Valentine are both coming off of injury-shortened (or eradicated) seasons. And neither has shown capable of matching Porter’s 17.7 points per game or his 48.8 percent three-point shooting.

Chicago was plus-11.6 in offensive rating with Porter on the floor, though his defense stayed in Washington.

Of course, this is all speculation based off activity elsewhere, so a grain of salt and whatnot. But it is not such a radical idea when examined. This would be a place where the front office could try to fast track the rebuild; something Bulls fans are familiar with.

Westbrook’s contract runs longer (2023) than Porter’s (2021), but the latter has a player option after this upcoming season. He will likely opt-in ($28 million is a lot to turn down), but there is at least some risk the Bulls could lose him for nothing. Does that push the front office to flip a player that fits well for one that, while he would raise their ceiling, makes their floor an unknown and possibly hinders them in 2021 free agency?

Probably wouldn’t be much worse than 22-60.

But for all the added scoring punch and teeth on defense, there is also the poor decision making. His gunner mentality despite constant clanks and a poor shooting percentage (36.3 percent from the floor, 18.9 from deep in fourth-quarter clutch situations) is a real detriment. And even with those former teammates absolving him publicly, Russ has now seen two very high-profile partners abandon him. Fair or not, that has to be taken into consideration.

Almost certainly, the juice is not worth the squeeze on this one.

Stats by Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Contract and free agency info by Spotrac.com.