Unless the Chicago Bulls win the draft lottery, they’ll have a tough decision on their hands. Should they draft for fit or draft the best player available?
Tuesday, May 14 will be the biggest day for fans of the Chicago Bulls in multiple years. That’s the day the ping pong balls will help decide the Bulls’ future. It’s the day of the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery.
Thanks to the new format, the Bulls have a fairly decent shot at winning the lottery. As it sits, the Bulls have a 12.5% chance to land the first overall pick – the fourth-best odds. The New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns are the three teams with better odds than Chicago. Those three teams have a 14% chance of winning the lottery.
If the Bulls win the lottery, their decision will – or should – be extremely easy. There’s absolutely no reason that Duke phenom Zion Williamson should be drafted anywhere but first overall. After the first pick, though, things get a little hazy.
Ja Morant, R.J. Barrett, Darius Garland and Jarrett Culver are among some of the top prospects in this year’s draft, but who the Bulls select will depend on which draft strategy the franchise chooses to follow.
The two simplest draft strategies are drafting for fit and drafting the best player available. For example, we all know the Bulls need a point guard, but if the best player available when the Bulls are on the clock isn’t a point guard, who should they take?
Some drafts are easier than others. Last year, the Bulls were on the clock with pick No. 7 and they desperately needed a center. Luckily, Wendell Carter Jr. was not only the best center available, but he was the best player available.
Easy decision. Welcome to the Bulls, Mr. Carter.
But what about this year? If the Bulls get the second overall pick, should they take R.J. Barrett or Ja Morant? Barrett has a higher ceiling and a better overall game, but Morant is (debatably) the best point guard in the draft.
In this scenario, the Bulls can’t go wrong. They’ll either take Barrett and figure out the fit later, or they’ll take Morant and he’ll slide right in at the point guard position.
Now let’s shift our focus to another realistic scenario. What if the Bulls are farther back in the draft? Let’s say they land the fourth pick. Then what should they do?
Jarrett Culver is an intriguing option. He has good length, vision and defensive upside, but where would he play? Maybe he’d come off the bench, or maybe the Bulls would slide Zach LaVine over to the point guard position and have Culver join Otto Porter Jr. on the perimeter. Either way, it’s not ideal, but it could work.
Another intriguing option in this scenario is Darius Garland. He has a tight handle, he can shoot from anywhere and his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. If Chicago is drafting fourth overall, Garland would undoubtedly be the best point guard available, but the Bulls might be leaving some overall talent on the board if they select him.
If Garland is their guy, they could either bite the bullet and take him off the boards early, or they could trade back and pick him up a little later in the draft.
At the end of the day, this is one of the most interesting draft classes in a while. There’s no clear-cut top-10. It’s all about what each individual team values. For the Bulls, they shouldn’t necessarily stick to drafting for fit or drafting the best player available. The draft strategy that they choose to follow should be dependant on how the lottery goes.
For now, we just have to wait and hope for the best.