Chicago Bulls 2018 NBA free agency preview: Centers

There are plenty of top name free agents in the upcoming 2018 free agent class. Who should the Chicago Bulls be focusing on? Throughout a series of articles, I will work on narrowing it down.

If only we can grab a big man with the superstar magnitude of Demarcus Cousins. We have repeatedly failed to grab an empowering talent in free agency for reasons unknown. Could it be the front office? The coaching? Or maybe the lack of star power?

Whatever it is, it will probably bar us from grabbing Cousins in the free agency. It won’t hurt to make a run at him, but our time and resources should be used for more pragmatic options. Let’s delve into centers the Bulls should target this coming Summer.

Just to be clear, I do not think we should offer every center these offers, rather these are options I think we should look into. Hence, these are the contracts they would be theoretically offered.

Clint Capela

The Bulls have to recognize a fit with Lauri, who had difficulty protecting the rim in his rookie season. If we draft a non-impact defender we will need a rim protector. Obviously, drafting Mo Bamba would render this free agent pickup useless. Draft aside, Capela belongs in the Windy City.

Capela’s greatest strength is his consciousness of his limitations. He doesn’t drift like the modern big man. 81.9% of his field goals were assisted on and 85.4% of his points came in the paint. When he receives a pass in the post he does not do a shake and bake, he keeps it at chin level and spins for a vertically inclined slam. He finishes 65.2% of his shots and has a solid offensive rating of 113.2.

Clint is a scoring machine when surrounded by shooters and shot creators. Given 36 minutes, he would score 18.2 points.  With Lauri roaming the perimeter and Lavine creating shots, Capela would man the block. The Rockets have not completely harnessed his capacity as an offensive force. His usage rate is just 18.3, only a tad higher than last season where it was 16.5.

Capela is a dominant rebounder, corralling 14.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. He displayed authority on the glass by having 49 games of 10+ rebounds. Facing Joel Embiid and the Sixers, Capela dominated the glass grabbing 20 rebounds on October 25. Against Nikola Jokic, Capela had 23 points and 25 rebounds in only 29 minutes. He dictates the glass against unicorns and brutes alike. To accentuate, rebounding is not his only aptitude.

Capela has a flair for the pick and roll. Kris Dunn thrives in the pick and roll. I could envision Kris Dunn driving past a hard pick set by Capela and lob a high arcing feed next to the rim allowing Capela to slam it down with ferocity.  Capela prospers by setting hard screens for Harden and rim running, hell-bent on receiving a lob at the peak of his vertical. The match makes too much sense.

Chris Paul has high praise for the up and coming big man from the Congo. “He’s really the X-factor. Because the threat of him at the rim is why I get my floaters, why I get my mid-range.” His screens are nearly impossible to get around, he does so much for himself but even more the players around him. His playing style is contagious to the team.

Truly, he is a valuable player.  Examine his playoff matchup to understand his importance. KAT averaged 15.2 points and 13.4 rebounds while shooting an inefficient 46.7%. Capela mirrored him with 15.8 points and 13.8 rebounds. KAT retained a -8.6 when on the court, oft getting bodied by the ultra-aggressive Capela. This illustrates Capela’s rim protection and ability to stay with the unicorn every step. Thus, he has the ability to be a legitimate two-way player.\

What will his Deal Look Like?

However, Capela does display weaknesses at times. Clint needs to improve his field goal and free throw percentage to take his game to the next level. Struggling mightily from the line, some teams have started to hack-a-Capela. While he is clearly not a one-dimensional player, he is definitely a one position player, spending 99% of his minutes at the 5. If he can improve on these shortcomings, we can see Capela earn every penny of his new deal.

The Rockets have multiple key players on the books and ones that need to be paid. Harden is guaranteed $181 million through 2022-23. Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker are owed 66 million combined over the next 2 seasons. Ryan Anderson has two more years remaining for a total of $40 million. Chris Paul is ready for a payday this Summer.

The Rockets will most likely deem Capela crucial to their future success, but it remains to be seen if they will offer a max contract to him. Being restricted, they will wait and see what he gets on the market. The Wizards, Suns, Mavericks, Hawks, and Kings will be vying for his services.

GM Daryl Morey stated in the heat of the season that they will pay, “whatever the market demands to keep Capela in Houston.” Hopefully, Morey is bluffing because Capela, Dunn, and Markkanen is a trio made in heaven. In the end, he should command somewhere between Kelly Olynyk’s $10 million per year contract to Steven Adams $25 million per year contract.

Proposed Contract: 4 years $95 million

Jusuf Nurkic

Nurkic is not the ideal fit next to Lauri Markkanen. Unlike Capela, he does not protect the rim nor erase shots. The 7’0’’ is strictly an offensive center and has a certain European flair, almost similar to Nikola Jokic.

He proved his worth as a swiss army knife for the Blazers quickly. After backing up Jokic in Denver, he put up 15.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3 assists in 29.4 minutes of action in the stretch run for the Blazers. This season he did more of the same, averaging 14.3 points, 9 rebounds, 1.8 assists in 26.4 minutes. He does not do anything extremely well but his addition to every part of the box score makes him a unique talent.

Jusuf’s dexterity on the glass is noteworthy. He averages a solid 12.2 rebounds per 36 minutes. Lauri was not necessarily ascendant as a rebounder, grabbing only 9.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. So while Nurkic will not provide rim sanctuary, he will bestow rebounds for the 23rd ranked rebounding team in the NBA.

He passes the ball surprisingly well for a guy with his size. For his career, the Bosnian Beast has dished out 2.5 assists per game per 36 minutes. He has the ability to put on a passing clinic everytime he posts up.

What will his Deal Look Like?

CBS reported that The Bosnian Beast yearns to be a Blazer for at least a few more years, “I want to be here, it’s no secret.” There is a possibility they deem him superfluous, Ed Davis can be a filler while Zach Collins waits for his turn as the future at center.

If the Blazers do not offer him a big-time offer, then the Bulls can jump in.  Jusuf’s agent will be looking at deals ranging from Bismack Biyombo’s 4 years $72 million to Al Horford’s 4 years $113 million.

Proposed Contract: 4 years $75 million

Nerlens Noel

A year ago, Nerlens Noel questionably demanded a max contract. No team jumped on this plea and rightfully so. He received a contract offer of 4 years $70 million from Mark Cuban but turned it down with defiance. Betting on a player who was suspended for the last 5 games of the season for smoking weed is not conventional. Nonetheless, there is raw potential here.

He put up 11.1 points and 8.1 rebounds in 67 games his second year, which has been the peak of his career thus far. He played in 80 games in a combined three seasons compared to 67 in his career year. A major worry is his history of injuries and DNPs.

Noel has potential as a rim protector, allowing opponents to shoot 34.7% from the field this past season. He enabled offenders to score around the rim this past season and must improve on this skill if he wants to be a legitimate rim protector, they finished 65.9% shots from less than 5 feet. He flashed potential by permitting opponents to shoot a weak 33.7% from 5-9 feet.

What will his Deal Look Like?

Noel needs to convert his shot erasing potential into defensive fortitude. He blocks defenders 1.7 times per 36 minutes. To compare, Noel has a 101 defensive rating for his career while Capela has a 103. So he does have potential but still should work on that side of the ball persistently.

He has not made long strides on offense as expected. He only finished 52.9% of his shots last season, a step below his 59.7% and 60% he finished in his third and fourth years, respectively.

Remember, plenty of centers have taken time to develop. Namely Deandre Jordan, who averaged 13 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes in his fourth year. Compare this with Noel 10 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks in 36 minutes in his fourth year. If Noel can emulate Jordan he can realize his potential. If we sign Noel, the hope is that he will be a late bloomer.

Nerlens fell out of favor with legendary coach Rick Carlisle long ago. He remains a ripe 24 years old and amasses massive potential. As he transitioned to the league from college, scouts were raving about his prospects as a star. He will not command the max but at this point, he should be grateful to remain in the league.

Proposed Contract: 2 years $10 million