Chicago Bulls 2018 NBA free agency preview: Forwards
There are plenty of top name free agents in the upcoming 2018 free agent class. Who should the Chicago Bulls be focusing on? Throughout a series of articles, I will work on narrowing it down.
Here are some forwards that should be on the Bulls radar.
Aaron Gordon
A resurgent year on a team with a bunch of broken pieces, Aaron Gordon has started to realize his colossal potential. He looks a lot like a perimeter oriented Blake Griffin, a four that beats burlier forwards off the dribble and muscles thinner forwards or guards in the paint. He is the ideal tweener and has even developed a (somewhat) reliable three-point shot.
You probably didn’t watch the Magic, but if you did you would see Aaron Gordon has morphed from a slam dunk mascot to an all-around stretch 4. This was Gordon’s first year shooting a high volume of threes. Gordon averaged 2.2 treys a game on 6.4 attempts, 11th best at the power forward position. He grabbed almost 8 rebounds a game and scored better than 20 points in 15 of his 58 games. Including standout performances in his second game against the Nets, where he dominated them to a tune of 41 points and 14 rebounds and 39 points and 7 rebounds in a loss to the Heat. He did this surrounded by a crew of outcasts.
The Magic’s leading assist man was Shelvin Mack who dished out 3.9 a game. He was forced to create his own shot and parlayed that into a strength. Clearly, improvement is being made in definitive categories in Gordon’s game and the Bulls need to take note.
What will his Deal Look Like?
Remember Gordon will be 23 by the start of next year, he could be worth offering a max contract. Gordon aligns with our rebuild signing him to a 4-year deal means he will be 27 by the end. Since he is restricted it could not hurt to offer Gordon a max offer sheet, which he is probably expecting from a handful of teams this impending free agency period.
Proposed contract: 4 years $100 million
Julius Randle
Much like Gordon, Randle boosted his stock in the free market this coming Summer. Last year, Randle was a pariah on a rebuilding team. He utilized a higher usage rate and a significant chip on his shoulder and turned it into a career year. Randle used his athleticism to finish shots at nearly a 56 percent rate, 8 percent higher than last year.
Keep in mind, Julius was benched for the first 33 games of the year. He only played 11 minutes and put up a measly 6 points and 3 rebounds. This game emulated Randle’s first half of the season, where he accumulated 9 games of less than 9 points. In contrast, he had only 3 games of less than 10 points from that point on. He truly turned it around for the Luke Walton led Lakers. They went from 11-22 in games where Randle started the game on the pine to 24-25 in ensuing games where Randle started the game on the floor. This is a small sample size worth considering for the Bulls, who are trying to build a winning culture.
What will his Deal Look Like?
Ultimately, if we do not sign Gordon we should try to lock up another young talent like Randle. The Lakers are more likely to let Randle walk than the Magic are to let Gordon walk since they have a similar talent in Kuzma at the 4. Also, Randle has less potential than Gordon. Thus, we should offer him a lesser contract than Gordon. His fit with Markkanen is undeniable as he would man the post while Markkanen patrols the outside area. Randle’s offer will probably hover around Paul Millsap’s 2015 3 year $48 million and 2016 Draymond Green’s 4 year $85 million contracts.
Proposed contract: 4 years $80 million
Jabari Parker
Hometown hero. Growing up in the Chicago area and playing for the same high school as D-Rose, Bari was “the best high school prospect since Lebron James,” Sports Illustrated dubbed on their front cover. The hype has not been fulfilled but headlines have followed. He has suffered two crippling ACL injuries. One in his rookie year and the other last year which caused him to miss a big chunk of games this year. He impressed in his third season, where he outright dominated games and averaged 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists. Parker showed his ability to be a sidekick on a winning team until he tore his ACL.
He took a step back this year due to a minutes restriction which caused him to say, “I am human. I have a right to be frustrated. I’ve waited two years for this.” Parker only received 10 minutes in his first game against the Celtics but has rebounded with two games of more than 15 points and 5 rebounds.
What will his Deal Look Like?
Certainly, Jabari is an interesting case. His past play coupled with his knee problems warrant a pricey one year deal. It won’t harm our future expenditures and should he play like he did in his third year, he could garner a max contract. But for now, we are unsure if the hometown hero can stay healthy so it is best to play it safe.
Proposed contract: 1 year $16 million
Mario Hezonja
Everything started to click for Hezonja this season with Orlando. The formerly hyped prospect out of FC Barcelona had trouble finding his footing in his first two seasons. Still somewhat of an enigma, the Bulls would be betting on the lion’s share of potential he carries. He takes questionable shots at times but has an explosive first step and defensive potential.
The Magic experimented with Hezonja at the four more than ever this year, playing 58% of court time in that position. He received almost no time at the 2 and played 42% time on the floor at the 3. At his best, Hezonja is a stretch 4 who can slide down to the 3 if need be. With Valentine and Holiday taking a majority of the minutes at the 3, it could be worth taking a risk on another Orlando project considering the franchise seemingly has no idea what they are doing with their players.
Hezonja has defensive potential with a wingspan stretching 6’10’’ and quick lateral movement. His defensive rating was 109.5 which didn’t improve from last season. Hezonja’s offensive rating vastly improved from 94.5 last season to 102.4 this season. His mid-range shot drastically improved. He shot 45.7% from 10-16 feet, while his first two years he shot below 36%.
He had trouble finishing at the rim last year, finishing a measly 51.2% within 3 feet last season to a career-best 65.9% this season. His usage rate was its highest at 19.9%, an increase from 18.8%. Distinctly, a longer leash allowed Hezonja to thrive in the dysfunctional Orlando offense. Overall, he took large steps to becoming the player that we thought he could be when he migrated to the United States. He could be a great potential prospect for the Chicago Bulls in the 2018 Free Agency search.
What will his Deal Look Like?
They should be willing to let Mario walk considering Jonathan Isaac plays at the same position. Hezonja will be 24 years old next season but in light of his breakout year, he should command a nice contract this Summer. The Magic declined his $6.9 million team option and as a result, they could only extend him a $5.2 million cap hold. Presumably, Hezonja will decline this and test his value on the market. Rebuilding teams should make runs at Mario, hoping an uptick in minutes will tap into his unique playing style. The Kings were reportedly interested in trading for him mid-season. The Bulls will need to allow Mario to receive 25-30 minutes and let him play through his mistakes if we want a return on his market value. He could reap a similar contract to Terrence Ross, who received a “prove it” $21 million over 2 years contract.
Proposed contract: 2 years $24 million