Fred Hoiberg finally has the Chicago Bulls playing at a faster pace, but is it actually helping?
When the Chicago Bulls hired Fred Hoiberg to be the head coach in 2015, Fred was thought of as an offensive mastermind who could help turn around the struggling Bulls.
Fred made things clear, he wanted a young, athletic roster who could shoot the ball and run the floor. In the summer of 2016, the Chicago Bulls did the opposite. They signed veteran guards Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade making the Bulls older, slower, and worse at shooting.
After one failed season with the “Three Alphas,” the Bulls decided to move on and try to build a roster to fit Hoiberg’s coaching style.
As Jimmy Butler said in an ESPN story, “And I said from the beginning it was either gonna be me or the Fred Hoiberg route. And rightfully so, they took Fred.”
So the Chicago Bulls moved forward with former 2x Slam Dunk Champion and elite shooter, Zach LaVine, 7-foot rookie and absolute sharpshooter, Lauri Markkanen, and former #5 overall draft pick, Kris Dunn.
Pace of play
It’s clear that the Chicago Bulls squad known as the “Three Alphas” wasn’t meant for Hoiberg’s offensive system. They couldn’t push the ball, and they couldn’t shoot.
Let’s take a look at some advanced metrics.
Last season with Rondo, Wade, and Butler running the show, the Bulls were 20th in the league in pace. That had them at an average of 97.72 possessions per game. Comparatively, last season the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors both had over 102 possessions per game, placing them at 3rd and 4th in the league, respectively.
The thing is… fast-paced offenses, don’t always equate to wins.
The Brooklyn Nets led the league in pace last season averaging over 103 possessions per game. They also only won 20 games.
This means that we then have to look at another advanced metric: offensive rating.
While the Net’s led the league in pace, they were 28th in offensive rating. The Warriors and Rockets, however, were numbers 1 and 2 in the league in offensive rating. The NBA is proving in today’s day and age, that a fast-paced offense, is in general what’s best. But it has to be used correctly.
Let’s fast forward to this season. With the Chicago Bulls’ new roster headed by young guns Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and Lauri Markkanen, they jumped from 20th in pace, up to 13th. Enough to put them in the top half of the league. Not too bad of a jump for just one season.
However, their offensive rating is taking a serious hit this season. Last season, despite the slower pace, the Bulls’ offensive rating was 21st in the league. This season? 29th.
Neither are good – clearly. But 29th is atrocious.
So is this faster-paced style of play actually a good thing?
I think it’s too early to tell, but I’m optimistic.
There are tons of variables that factor into offensive rating more than just pace. For example, the Bulls had a much better roster last year than this year. They were (supposedly) built to win. This year, they’re built to tank and (hopefully) improve.
It makes sense that an offense centered around All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler is going to be more successful than one centered around youth.
I think it’s a good sign that Coach Hoiberg has gotten the pace up, despite the disastrous offensive rating. I also think the offensive rating can be more so blamed on youth and a general lack of talent outside their four main players (I’m including Bobby Portis in that group now).
Next: Tanking is getting in the way of the Chicago Bulls growth
Once the Bulls can add more depth, another lottery pick, and just more years of experience for these young fellas, I expect the pace to keep going up, and ultimately, the offensive rating as well. LaVine, Markkanen, Dunn, and Portis have the talent to boast prolific offensive ratings – it’s just going to take time.