Gauging Nikola Mirotic’s trade value for the Chicago Bulls
By Khobi Price
Reports from around the league are saying multiple teams are interested in acquiring the Chicago Bulls Nikola Mirotic.
With Nikola Mirotic being eligible to be traded Monday, it’s time to gauge his trade value and figure out what trade packages the Chicago Bulls should seek.
This year’s quieter than usual unofficial NBA trading season is about going to become louder as the Chicago Bulls are determined to make noise with a transaction involving Nikola Mirotic.
"I think he's gone. I've been told a few times even the last few days it's a matter of when, not if."
— Daniel Greenberg (@ChiSportUpdates) January 10, 2018
- @NickFriedell talking about Nikola Mirotic on @ESPN1000
Three franchises have emerged as teams that want to acquire the fourth-year forward from Spain; the Utah Jazz, the Detroit Pistons and the Portland Trailblazers.
The quality of the return package the Bulls could receive varies by the team.
So, I’m going to figure out who can have the best, yet realistic, offer for the Bulls and determine which direction the Windy City franchise should follow.
Background Information
The New York Times’ Marc Stein had a report that could throw an interesting wrinkle in trade discussions:
Important to note: If the Bulls pick up their team option on Nikola Mirotic for next season before trading him, Mirotic would lose his current veto power over a trade as because his current contract would become a two-year deal.
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) January 9, 2018
Mirotic, reportedly, expressed interest in being traded after his altercation with Bobby Portis.
Recent reports claim he still no longer wishes to stay with the Bulls, so it’s unlikely he’d veto a trade to a good team with a favorable situation.
But, if he does, the Bulls have something to keep in their back-pocket.
Chicago Bulls send Mirotic out West to the Utah Jazz
Utah receives: Nikola Mirotic
Bulls receive: Derrick Favors, Jazz’s 2018 first-round pick (top-5 protected)
If a deal were going to be done between the Bulls and Jazz, this would be it.
The Salt Lake Tribune detailed how discussions between the two teams has already begun:
“The Salt Lake Tribune has confirmed that Utah is engaged in talks with the Chicago Bulls on a deal that would bring power forward Nikola Mirotic to Utah Jazz forward Derrick Favors has been discussed as a potential piece that would go to Chicago, according to multiple sources. Other reports Tuesday suggest the Bulls want a first round pick as compensation for Mirotic, something they have inquired the Jazz about. Nothing is done on either side, but talks are past the preliminary stage and getting serious.”
Why this works for the Jazz:
Utah plays like a solid team when Rudy Robert plays without Favors, outscoring teams by 0.7 points per 100 possessions. They’re just as good when Favors is on the court and Robert isn’t, edging out teams by 0.8 points per 100 possessions.
But, when they share the floor, the Jazz are one of the worst teams in the league. They get outscored by 8.3 points and only score 92.2 points per 100 possessions. Those numbers are almost on par with what the Chicago Bulls were putting up when they started the season 3-20.
Having two non-shooters on the floor at the same time without a transcendent superstar (sorry Jazz fans, Donovan Mitchell isn’t one yet) is a recipe for an offensive disaster.
Gobert’s age, 25, defensive presence, he led the league in blocks and was on the NBA All-Defensive First team last season and overall impact, All-NBA Second team last year, make him the more desirable player for the Jazz to keep over Favors.
Slotting Mirotic next to Robert gives the Jazz a more ideal, modern front court with a shooter at the four and a rim-running, rim protecting five.
Having Mirotic stretch the floor will open scoring opportunities for Rodney Hood and Mitchell, while opening up passing lanes for Ricky Rubio.
A case has been made that Mirotic isn’t as bad as a defender as he’s made out to be, giving the Jazz the best of both the offensive and defensive worlds.
Why this works for the Bulls
For the Chicago Bulls, the draft pick would be the asset they covet the most. The Jazz currently have the 10th best record in the West and are in jeopardy of missing the postseason.
If this trade was made and the Utah didn’t qualify for the playoffs, then the Chicago Bulls would go into the draft with two lottery picks (assuming they don’t make a run to the playoffs themselves).
They could use these picks to add young depth to their team or package them to move up to get a higher rated prospect.
Favors wouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a half-season rental.
Unless, he signed a contract with a team over the summer, which would be counterintuitive.
NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski had this to say about a potential Jazz-Bulls trade in a Jan. 8 ESPN article:
“Mirotic has been intrigued with the Utah Jazz, whose coach, Quin Snyder, has a reputation for maximizing offensive talent.”
Which is important because, remember, he can veto a trade if the Bulls don’t pick up the team option. Add this in with Mirotic following the Salt Lake Tribune on Twitter and the case for Mirotic making a move out West seems very realistic.
https://twitter.com/chisportupdates/status/951190764062683136
Inter-division swap between the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons
Pistons receive: Nikola Miortic
Bulls receive: Stanley Johnson, Boban Marjanovic and Pistons’ 2018 first round pick
One man’s pain is another man’s pleasure is the theme of this deal.
ESPN Staff Writer Ian Begley detailed how the Pistons may move off Johnson in a Jan. 12 ESPN article:
“Forward Stanley Johnson is one name that has come up in the Pistons’ conversations with other teams, per ESPN sources. Opposing teams have come away with the impression that Johnson is available for the right return.”
Why this works for the Pistons
The Pistons want Mirotic and could currently use a shot of adrenaline to their offense, 16th in points per 100 possessions and 25th in points per game.
Mirotic is having a career year; averaging career-highs in points (17.3) and rebounds (6.9) per game while shooting a career-best 48.4 percent from the field and 46.4 from beyond the arc.
While the Pistons have one of the better defenses in the league, 9th in points allowed per 100 possessions, they have a better defense when Johnson isn’t on the floor.
These numbers may be a result of the players Johnson matches up again.
But, sending him to Chicago in favor of Mirotic, who makes the Bulls’ offense better by 9.5 points per 100 possessions, while making their defense better may be the answer they’re seeking.
Why this works for the Bulls
When watching the Bulls it becomes clear they need help in multiple areas.
The two glaring issues is they need a center who will anchor a defense and more versatile, two-way players in between the heights of 6’7”-6’10”; the kind of athletes who are defining this era of basketball.
Johnson hasn’t lived up to the hype he came into the league with as the 8th pick in the 2015 Draft. But, Head Coach Fred Hoiberg has done an exceptional job of working with young players and developing them.
Next: It’s time to put some respect on Kris Dunn's name
It isn’t out of the question that Hoiberg could help make Johnson a better shooter in a similar manner he helped Kris Dunn. The first-round pick would likely fall outside of the lottery.
But, it would still have value as an asset the Bulls could use to move up the draft if paired with a veteran player or their own draft pick.
Marjanovic makes Robin Lopez more expendable in a trade, if they still want to go down that route.
He could become a fan favorite in another NBA city since the terms of his contract aren’t long or expensive enough to bog down the Bulls’ cap space.
Chicago Bulls send Mirotic to the home of Nike
Portland receives: Nikola Mirotic
Bulls receive: Noah Vonleh, Meyers Leonard and Portland’s 2018 first round pick
The trade follow the same parameters as the Pistons one.
Why this works for the Trail Blazers:
The Blazers have a low supply of power forwards who can efficiently shoot the ball from deep without one of their glaring weakness being exposed.
Like the Pistons, they make a solid percentage of their 3-pointers, 14th in conversion rate in the league, but don’t shoot them frequently, 23rd in the association.
Having Mirotic on the floor would make life easier for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Mirotic has the shooting ability, and has become a better scorer after putting the ball on the floor, to bail the team out when opposing teams key in on them with schemes and double teams.
A lineup featuring Lillard, McCollum, Mirotic and Jusuf Nurkic may be a negative risk when it comes to the defensive end.
But, as a team whose offense, 19th in the league, is holding them back from more sustained success, it’s risk they should be willing to take.
Why this works for the Bulls:
The Bulls would want to make this trade for the same reason they’d make one with the Pistons.
They’d give Hoiberg another recent former lottery pick to experiment with in Vonleh and a draft pick that would fall in the high teens/low 20s.
While Leonard’s contract is less desirable than Marjanovic’s, it wouldn’t be a detriment to the franchise.
What should the Chicago Bulls do?
I have a feeling Mirotic is going to be dealt to the Jazz since they’re the team he prefers.
But, if I’m the Bulls I’m trying to make a push for the trade with Detroit if the Pistons included their first-round pick and Johnson.
Being able to receive a player who has the two-way potential of Johnson and a mid-first round pick is an opportunity the Bulls shouldn’t pass up.
Those are the kind of opportunities that can accelerate a rebuild by filling the Bulls’ roster with more quality young talent.