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How will the new NBA Draft reform affect the rebuilding Chicago Bulls?

By Matt Ostrowski

LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 12: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks to the media to discuss the Board of Governors meetings on July 12, 2017 at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 12: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver speaks to the media to discuss the Board of Governors meetings on July 12, 2017 at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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The NBA’s board of governors voted to pass a reform to the NBA Draft lottery on Thursday. That approval hurts the Chicago Bulls’ rebuilding plans in 2019 and beyond.

This new NBA draft reform spreads the odds of earning the number one overall pick in the NBA draft evenly between the three worst teams in the league. They’ll all have a 14 percent chance of being awarded the top overall pick, down from 25 percent from the worst team, 19.9 percent for second and 15.6 percent for third.

The odds for the rest of the teams were raised slightly. Check out the full changes in the table here.

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the vote passed 28-1-1, with the Oklahoma City Thunder being the one “no” and the Dallas Mavericks being the team that abstained.

Thankfully for the newly tanktastic Chicago Bulls, this will not take effect until the 2019 NBA Draft. However, it is a bit puzzling that they voted yes given that they decided to tank with almost no assets just a few months ago. They surely won’t be done tanking after just one season.

But hey, given that the odds improve for every team outside of the top three, maybe the Bulls will be just good enough after this season for this to benefit them.

Regardless, what really needs to be discussed here is that this reform really won’t do much to stop teams from tanking. Since 2000, only seven NBA franchises have won a championship: the Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors.

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With the exception of the 2003-04 Pistons, who didn’t really have an elite NBA player, every one of those teams drafted a superstar in the top 15 of the NBA Draft: Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, and Stephen Curry.

Then, they built around that superstar.

And that’s the obvious way to win a championship in the NBA: draft a superstar, then fill in the blanks.

It just so happens that most superstars are found in the top 10 of the NBA Draft.

Sure, there are guys like Jimmy Butler floating around at the end of the first round, but that’s rare.

By tanking, teams maximize their chance to find that superstar. They would prefer to throw darts at a stationary dart board than a moving one. So would I. This does nothing to change that strategy.

In my opinion, the problem is the maximum contract. When there’s a limit on how much a guy can make, it values LeBron James and Paul Millsap equally. I’d bet even Millsap himself would tell you that’s a bit crazy.

No NBA superstar is going to sign with a rebuilding team in free agency if they could sign for the same with an already good team. Eliminate the maximum contract and keep the hard salary cap in place and suddenly, a team like the Bulls would maybe be able to offer Kevin Durant almost $50 million next off-season. Suddenly, signing with that rebuilding team becomes a bit more appealing.

So not only would that create another way for a franchise to acquire a superstar, but it would also spread out the superstars in the NBA, rather than having almost all of the elite NBA players concentrated within just a few teams.

Next: What the Carmelo Anthony trade means for the Bulls

It’s clear the NBA knows this is an issue, but by reforming the lottery, they’re attacking it the wrong way. It’s a step sideways, and while the Warriors figure to dominate the NBA for the near future, tanking might be at an all-time high within the next few years.

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